Post by
filefish on Jul 17, 2021 2:00pm
Time is running out
Every month that goes by AOC is paying $5mil in interest.
Every day that passes is putting more uncertainty in the minds of shareholders with oil prices being subject to the mood swings of OPEC and real or politically contrived fears about COVID. Fundamental developments in the oil markets take place slowly and only the near term impacts are the actual quarterly numbers that the company generates adding forward guidance. We have only 6 months to go before the Noteholders steal the company away from us.
I continue to question why ATH does not just take at least 150mil in unemcumbered cash and make a tender offer for the Notes at sub Par value and stop paying interest on this. I know, we have gone over and over about this for a long time. Imagine if they did this any time over the past year.
Even Nutall said in May that he expected a Refi in a month or so. That time has passed. I hope he has the "patience" that other posters here keep asking for to hold on to his 50mil shares a while longer.
Comment by
fellowship on Jul 17, 2021 2:41pm
Nutall is only 32 mil shares now, he unloaded 15 mil at end of June. Also take in the consideration the shorts added at same time. Symbol Issue Name Shares Net Change Date $ATH.TO ATHABASCA OIL CORPORATION J 2,402,627 314,672 30 Jun 2021 We are where we are supposed to be. GLTA
Comment by
Chris007 on Jul 17, 2021 3:19pm
Where did you find the info on Nutall's ATH holdings/transactions?
Comment by
Chris007 on Jul 17, 2021 3:24pm
Nevermind, think i found it on morningstar https://www.morningstar.ca/ca/report/fund/portfolio.aspx?t=0P000075KO
Comment by
filefish on Jul 17, 2021 3:56pm
Obviously Nutall is hedging his bet on ATH, but it demonstrates a certain lack of conviction in managements ability to make a transformative deal or Refi. I also fear that the Biden admin thru the MSM will be pushing a fear narative on COVID to among other things, drive down oil prices.
Comment by
Chris007 on Jul 17, 2021 4:00pm
LOL the "mainstream media" doesn't need to do anything, if countries in Asia basically are going back into lockdown due to a big bump in covid variant numbers. Fact of the matter is, vaccination rates are pretty decent in North America (US and Canada anyways)...other parts of the world...not so great to say the least
Comment by
filefish on Jul 17, 2021 4:07pm
You missed the point - its the message of fear that the MSM is pushing that is spooking energy investors, aside from what is reality or not elsewhere in the world. .
Comment by
Chris007 on Jul 17, 2021 4:24pm
LOL. Would it make a difference if they said,"many places in the world are reimplementing restrictions or going into lockdown and cases ramping up, but don't worry, everything is great!!!" Commodity speculation is always driven by news headlines
Comment by
Mtklip on Jul 17, 2021 4:41pm
Overall, the world is emerging from the virus and the supply is constrained. A few bumps here and there is not the same as the world without vaccine and in a big unknown.
Comment by
Chris007 on Jul 17, 2021 4:44pm
Definitely agree....that being said, seems like the market was not pricing in the "few bumps" part.
Comment by
filefish on Jul 17, 2021 6:27pm
Despite which way you think the wind is blowing on Covid, my original topic point is - time is running out- on ATH to get something done before we see even the most avid supporting shareholders seriously considering selling out. "Long term" is now a 6 month horizon.
Comment by
Chris007 on Jul 17, 2021 6:36pm
Absolutely...heres hoping the company announces something/anything in regard to the debt refinancing when they release Q2, other than more of the same "coming soon" message that they've been putting out for the last year.
Comment by
fellowship on Jul 17, 2021 7:20pm
Filefish you are not thinking . The company hedge will be done. Why may I ask if there is no debt rollover ?
Comment by
filefish on Jul 17, 2021 7:26pm
Perhaps you can clearly explain to the "non thinking" what you are trying to say.
Comment by
fellowship on Jul 17, 2021 7:31pm
The fact company is heding their production at some level is the indication that the debt will be taken care of. Not wanting to sound pejorative but time is running out is not exactly the case here.
Comment by
Renofund on Jul 19, 2021 12:22pm
LOL. Perhaps you should leave it to him to decide. You probably wouldnt be posting this had the name been going the other way.
Comment by
filefish on Jul 19, 2021 4:55pm
Hope that todays alarming WTI action will serve as a wake up call to the extreme urgency of getting this refi done.
Comment by
Chris007 on Jul 19, 2021 5:04pm
I concur...would definitely prefer management to err on the side of caution when it comes to the refinancing and just get it done, especially with the notes so close to maturity