Athabasca Oil Corp T.ATH

The crazy thing is

[Nothingmatters]

Oil stocks trade linear when oil is down however dont go up when oil is up...the new normal. Temper your expectations. Reaching even $1 would be hard let alone $2 or $3

[fellowship]

Companies do stock buybacks for a reason when time is right. 

[Nothingmatters]

For that you have to have minimal debt...Apart SU and erf no other company has committed to stock buy backs..

[fellowship]

Shareholders voted for it but it is true there are no buybacks anytime soon. I am not in a hurry.

[EstevanOutsider]

Not true. Trican maxed out buybacks since 2017 and so did Parex. .

[ComradeKomissar]

I have this feller on "ignore", but couldn't help but respond. The overall level of debt doesn't matter when doing share buybacks, as long as the debt you incur is at lower rate than your internal cost of capital. Nothingmatters wrote:For that you have to have minimal debt...Apart SU and erf no other company has committed to stock buy backs..

[Maxmoe]

Ahh, but the trouble with such a blanket statement, despite the algebra being correct, is the internal cost of capital can change abruptly and materially. And it can happen at the darndest time with no warning like in 2020. Every commodity or cyclical company especially has a volatile cost of capital that if looked at in isolation would steer companies to do the exact opposite of what we investors

[Nothingmatters]

I minimal debt I meant manageable debt not like when you are selling your egress capacity. I dont respond to idiots but felt the need.

[Maxmoe]

And both stocks did nothing or went down anyway. Buybacks are overrated imo as I've not seen a meaningful impact on stock prices due solely to a buyback. Something else must be going on that will raise the price with or without the buyback. Like the oil price doubled. Or dropped in half. To me the only rational reason to buyback stock is if A) you have excess cash you are tempted to blow on

[filefish]

I believe 1.00/sh is a fair assessment, even after they finalize the re-financing. Profitable quarterly reports in Q3 and Q4 will have to materialize to provide a basis for new investors to come in and for us long timers to hang on..   ATH will need to make a case to investors why they have good reason to be a stand alone enterprise going forward.  

[Maxmoe]

Well we all have opinions. And bellybuttons. I try and keep mine clean.  If the next 6 to 12 months unfolds as I expect, oil will be right where it is, mid 60s to low 70s. Ath will refinance the debentures at reasonable but not great terms because lenders are still skittish. Investors are still skittish about all oil stocks but small caps even more so, so, ATH can double from here and still

[Nothingmatters]

That's the problem. All my money is in frigging oil...