Athabasca Oil Corp T.ATH

2022 Free cash flow

[pierrelebel]

.... about $0.34 per share

No dividend, no buyback this year but great prospects for 2023 with much lower debt.

If we use a multiple fo four times free cash flow for this year that brings the share price to $1.36.  If we use a 5 times multiple that brings the share price to $1.70.

Now is the time to buy, not sell.

[TickerStock101]

The presentation makes no sense as at 70WTI they fortcasted 125millon of FCF yet at 85WTI it's only 185 million FCF?? That's a really low estimate!! It should be way higher! So for every 5wti raise its 20 million?? Doesn't make sense. For the 4th quarter of last year they made 90 million FCF according to the presentation yet they had very similar hedges this year as in that quarter

[ComradeKomissar]

Probably Burgess royalties.

[pierrelebel]

"makes no sense as at 70WTI they fortcasted 125millon of FCF yet at 85WTI it's only 185 million FCF??" Makes sense once you consider that a large percentage of 2022 production has been hedged at lower prices (as requested by bankers) When hedged, it does not really matter if WTI is at US$60 or US$ 90. You only get what you contracted. Things should be better next year with fewer

[TickerStock101]

But the hedges (swaps) for 2022 are almost the same as the 4th quarter of 2021. The other collars haven't been needed yet 

[Rational43]

First let's differentiation between Cash Flow and AFFO.     Cash flow for Q3 and Q4 '21 look to be ~ $75M per Quarter with changes in working capital swinging AFFO higher then lower in the quarters.  AFFO looks to be about $45M for Q4 vs $72M for Q3.  FCF looks like ~ $34m for Q4, which aligns with 32M debt reduction, so spending of ~ $31M in the quarter, of

[Rational43]

Most likely is ATH deferred as much care and maintainence as they possibly could over the past 2 years while situation was bad and then when re-financing was going on.  Now they are playing catch up with significant "repair and maintainence" work on sites that doesn't count as Capex, but is expensed as occured.  Add some one time refinancing costs, and maybe some

[ManitobaCanuck]

This kind of makes most sense to me. Anyone wondered about emailing the CFO MArk about this. He is very responsive to emails ..