Post by
Gabriel on May 17, 2024 1:10pm
My analysis
I was expecting a drop for two reasons:
1) Before earnings announcement, when we were trading at around 56$, someone bought a very large number of put insurance contracts (3,583 contracts meaning 358,300 shares) expiring today at 16:00 at a strike price of 52$. The premium that individual or that group paid has now increased multifold. Is it mere luck or premiditated action that the stock has now dropped from 56.50 to 52.50$. Maybe they bought those puts before selling large quantities of ATRL knowing this will result in a price drop so as to compensate the drop with the increase in price of the put premiums.
2) My analysis establishes a fair price between 52 to 55$. I am confident buyer at 52$ - 53$ and did buy today and yesterday (about 130,000 shares in total) turning my slightly skewed short position before earnings into a long one now.
i also added lots of Aecon selling at less than 3x EBITDA excluding LSTKs. Just like the ATRL and the 407, Aecon also has its concessions which generate more EBITDA actually than the 407 share of ATRL and claims against Coastal GasLink (CGL) for 1.1B with Robert B. Somerville Inc. going into arbitration in September. My analysis says we clearly win.
FWIW. Have a great WE everyone.
Gabriel
Comment by
Gabriel on May 17, 2024 1:52pm
We went as low as 52.01$. This means we have lots of buyers. Hopefully these puts will expire worthless.