RE:RE:RE:Article on Neodymium bae, I understand how you feel. Going back that long I've had my fair share of big disappointments and losses. Blue Note Mining (zinc) and Celtic Minerals (gold) just to name two. I don't stand any chance of recovering anything from either play because they are gone. I trust anyone playing in this space understands the odds are stacked very high against any their company building anything. It certainly does feel great when you are part of building something new though. I am not short term trading AVL. Being part of rebuilding critical mineral supply chains and/or a cleaner energy capability is pretty exciting to me.
I wonder if the fact that AVL is still around after all these years says something about the assets or the management? The cynic in me says it could say that they know how to keep getting paid. ;-) However, it appears to me that they came very close with Nechalacho, and the economics, undeniably controlled by China, outweighed secure supply concerns of the time. Further, they didn't have a post pandemic economic stimulus environment focused on clean energy that we're going to see.
From my perspective, having just discovered AVL in April this year, they look like they are well positioned and respected with several critical mineral plays.
All that being said, I truly appreciate your sentiment, insight and contribution here. I hope you will continue to offer the thoughtful experienced view. To highlight things just like the Lepedico deal, which I did research a little when I found it mentioned in the SR PEA. Indeed it appears unfortunate that what I can only assume is econmics (haven't researched much) led to the decision to locate the plant in Abu Bhabi vs. Sudbury. Perhaps it will be different this time if they partner with Rock Tech and benefit from government support.
I'm also hopeful that AVL has and continues developing new technologies/approaches to lithium (and other) extraction and lithium hydroxide recovery that will make their approach even more attractive for all to support. An example might be the use of electrodialysis with reduced waste through recycling.
Unless you've averaged down over the years and/or are prepared to do so now as tough as it might be, I suspect it is very unlikely you'll see a return on you investment soon. However, AVL spent almost 4 years valued over a dollar 2009-2013. I see that happening again should Separation Rapids mine and/or a TB processing facility become a reality - let alone the longer shot/term Nechalacho that could become attractive again.
Happy holidays!