Avalon Advanced Materials Inc T.AVL

Big questions on rare earths looking for answers

[Cartmanbrah]

1. Can we do without government intervention? What will come of the US-Canada Joint Action Plan for Critical Minerals?  

>>The capital cost for the [Nechalacho] mine and processing facility was estimated at $1.5-billion. A big ask, but Avalon was optimistic it could raise the funds.>>

>>According to a 2010 paper by the U.S. China Economic and Security Review Commission, many Chinese rare-earth mining companies lost money during the industry’s early years but were able to survive thanks to generous loans from state-controlled banks. This allowed Chinese rare-earth companies to produce at low prices and drive competitors out of business.>>

>>Most of these prescriptions share a common ingredient: intensive government intervention. Put another way, to compete with China, Western countries might have to adopt some of the tactics its government applies to priority industries.>>

>>Chinese firms could also orchestrate a price war. “They can actually drive down the price of these rare metals to the point that it’s not cost competitive elsewhere,” said Aaron Henry, senior director of natural resources and environmental policy at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.>>

>>Chinese state-controlled producers have dominated the market for decades, crushing most contenders>>

>>Companies need to commit the huge amounts of capital to build them. Governments may need to intervene on a scale rivalling China’s own support for its priority industries.>>

>>Avalon could be considered one of the lucky ones – it still exists. >>

>>Avalon’s Mr. Bubar believes that the U.S. and Canadian governments should commit to buying rare earths and stockpiling them.>>


2. Will China run out of raw materials so badly that even Canadian resources will be desired?

>>Indeed, in a report published in June, 2019, mining strategist Christopher Ecclestone of Hallgarten & Co., an economic research firm, concluded it is now inevitable that China’s production will fall to half of the global total by 2025. The reason: its ruthless squandering of a finite resource. “We are now in the territory of post-peak Chinese production of rare earths,” he wrote.>>


3. Does ESG matter globally? Will the Chinese production methods move to neighboring countries such as Myanmar and stay as dirty as ever?

>>Higher environmental standards, along with the scarcity of both high-grade deposits and talent, could price North American producers out of the market. Others have recommended relieving the industry of liabilities associated with handling radioactive waste.>>

>>China’s competitive advantage also sprung from lax environmental oversight. “If you can blow up half a mountain or a hill, and you don’t have to worry about what’s below it, mining becomes that much cheaper.>>

>>Air and soil pollution are even greater threats, according to Mr. Huang. Around the city of Baotou, rare-earth tailings accumulated for decades, and high winds often whipped hazardous dust throughout the surrounding region.>>


4. Can we do without Chinese expertise on rare earth processing?

>>David Abraham, a fellow at the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, a U.S. non-profit, and author of The Elements of Power, attributes China’s success to “geological good fortune, expertise at extracting resources out of the ground and making them economical, and a lack of environmental awareness or concern.”>>

>>Mr. Abraham recalled attending a rare-earths conference in Lanzhou, China, in 2015, a city he said isn’t even in rare-earth mining country. He estimated about 300 people attended. “You can’t even gather 300 people in the U.S. who have expertise in rare earths,” he said.>>

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-can-the-wests-economies-ever-escape-chinas-magnetic-pull-the-story/#:~:text=According%20to%20a,out%20of%20business.

[Jsaw44]

my view is that avalon rare earth deposits are worthless until China threatens to cut us off. At that point, Avalon has a lot of key critical rare earth elements that will be desperately needed. Stock will hit $10 in a week of they actually cut us off. Otherwise, they are just cute to look at.

[Cartmanbrah]

My view is that government intervention, similar to China, is needed in order to make a larger rare earth mine somehow sustainable. I'm curious how Cheetah/Vital Metals is proceeding in Nechalacho and also with their other projects such as the Ucore deal . An optimist might think that as mining has already commenced in Nechalacho it would lower the threshold to dig in to the AVL's basal

[Nick1969]

Even if China cuts us off for RE minerals  , AVLs deposits are yeears away from being mined and refined into anything useful.  The stock may go up on sheer speculation like last time , but as soon as things go back to ''nromal'' it will be another penny stock again.. I was holding 400K shares until this past January when I sold them after doubling my investment. I will

[toppgunn]

Agree totally NIck1969 with your comments.  AVL desparately needs a reverse split of 10:1 to  100:1 to move forward.  Massive penny stock share companies don't go anywhere except flat, delisting or down.  Bubar needs to step aside and get someone that will move this company forward as he got the opportunity for 30 plus years without any noticeable success.