Artis Real Estate Investment Pref Shs Series E T.AX.PR.E

RE:Canadian GDP and US payrolls

[EstevanOutsider]

It wouldn't surprise me if some REIT investors were capitulating today on fears of basic monthly US economic data. The same group of investors were not smart enough to sell ahead of a massive rate cycle because they thought inflation would stay low for longer and believed incompetent politicians who said rates would stay low for a long time. This is the time to buy. Negative data is coming in strongly and it looks to be like a recession is enroute. Already arrived in Europe. It looks like it will be very bad in Canada. US is a bit different due to 30 year mortgages but other negative variables are popping up while deliquencies soar and PMIs fall. Shouldn't long now until the narrative changes.

The biggest risk I see in the near term is more pressure from tax loss selling. Not sure it will be so bad as most do not have many winners this year. REITs also likely to be targeted for tax loss buying, especially if narrative changes to rate cuts as these instruments still offer compelling yields.