Artis Real Estate Investment Pref Shs Series E T.AX.PR.E

TJ

[Frankie10]

If you can respond nicely, I would be curious how this fits into your thesis regarding lower folllowing cut:

"Rate cuts a catapult for Canadian stocks says BMO's Belski -via @SBarlow_ROB  'While the pace of the easing cycle is certainly going to be data  dependent, the trend is clear, with historical easing cycles lasting up  to a year with nearly 200 bps of cuts on average. Furthermore, our  analysis shows that these cycles can be divided into proactive  “non-recession” easing cycles (1996, 1998, 2003, and 2015) versus more  reactive “recession” easing cycles (2001, 2007, 2020). In fact, these  two types of easing cycles show two clearly divergent performance paths  for the S&P/TSX. In the more “proactive” periods like the current  easing cycle, our work shows the TSX typically posting solid gains six  months and 12 months after the first rate cut. This is in clear contrast  to the more “reactive” easing cycles where the TSX typically sharply  underperforms."

[garyreins]

TJ is essentially in the camp that there will be "reactive" cuts due to a hardlanding.  He may be right.

[Torontojay]

  Yes Gary, the Fed will be reactive with cuts when the data becomes crystal clear. This is my honest opinion how I think it will play out.  I think the US may be very close to a recession with unemployment at 4% and I would be paying attention to this number in the months ahead. If I'm right and we get a layoff heavy recession  then I think we will get a better look at

[Torontojay]

  In the other easing cycles, the yield curve was not inverted as it is now. I can go on and on why this cycle is different than 1996,1998,2003,2015. In the 1995/1996 time period the Fed only had to cut 3 times. This time around, the Fed has to cut by over 200 bps ( up to 8 cuts) just to get close to neutral level. The 2015 era was the oil crash in Canada where they had to drop rates but