Artis Real Estate Investment Pref Shs Series E T.AX.PR.E

Only 1 rate cut in 2024

[Torontojay]

The Fed will cut only one time and likely on September 18th.  They won't cut on November 7th as it is too close to the election. The Fed is data dependent and I think July 31st is cutting it too short. This makes September to be the right time for a cut. 

What do you think?

[garyreins]

We'll get good cuts when trump wins and fires powell. imagine being these cl0wns lettingg inflation run to 9% and then trying to thread a needle back to 2% no matter what it takes for how long it takes

[Frankie10]

I think it's a matter of if not when with respect to cuts... or how many and how soon... and I think that says it all. Fundamentally rate cuts would materially benefit businesses with high debt to enterprise value from a cash flow percepective. For real property, cap rates would decrease, creating a nice lift for the balance sheet and on debt metrics. You apply this logic beyond real assets

[Torontojay]

Yes, from a theoretical point of view rate cuts should boost equity values provided that the 10 year moves in lockstep with Fed funds. In the 70's, Fed funds were declining but the 10 year was going higher, specifically in 1975. In that case, the market was telling the Federal Reserve, "we still have a problem." Certainly that was the case with inflation still persistently high