RE: Looking Ahead Yes, I tend to agree about being patient. I am somewhat encouraged by some incremental improvement in France. Maybe they aren't throwing $100m down a rabbit hole in France after all. Covage EBITDA margins rose to 13 percent for 2012. It's still pretty paltry but considering where it had been, i.e., -13%, -25%, 3% and 7% in the past four years, it is an improvement. They also state that Covage operating cash will contribute $10m of the $15m in Covage CAPEX planned for 2013, and market penetration did a nice little jump to 9.5%, up from 8.2% just three months ago. In France, there has been no dramatic movement in EBITDA for the past 5 years. I am hopeful that 2013 will be a good year for Covage. They need it to step to the plate and make up for the coming shortfall in OpenNet earnings in April. (But I have been optimistic before only to be dissappointed by the actual numbers coming out of France. May the optimism be warranted this time).
On the downside, the gravy train in Asia is coming to an end in April when the SingTel fees kick in. OpenNet did $3m in 4Q income, but much of that could be eaten up by these new fees in the second quarter. But they are ahead of growth projections and it looks like OpenNet might contribute meaningfully to the bottom line in 2013 despite these fee payments.
I am hopeful for a good FY2013 for Axia. At the current share price I don't see myself selling any shares.