In the previous post, I have briefly stated the reasons for investing in $bb. Of course, it is not because of its declining network security business. Most of the investors in $bb are also investors in $tsla, $pltr, etc. I think the reasons for the investment mainly include the following points:
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Everyone is optimistic about the electrification and intelligence of automobiles
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In the field of automotive terminal intelligence, a basic platform for software development and data development is needed
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In this industry change, it is impossible for $tsla to take all the market share. As $tsla expects, it can only get 30% of the market share by 2030, which means that at least there are 70% of the market share belongs to the non-Tesla camp
So why $bb, what's so special about it, and what drives its growth?
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The evolution of electric vehicles to the central control architecture, component control, human-computer interaction interface, assisted driving and automatic driving, etc. are transformed from ECUs to One SoC at the computer hardware level
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In the initial stage of this EEA evolution, the role of the hardware chip provider is decisive, because there are not many chips to choose from, only Qualcomm, Nvidia, and Mobileye which providing independent solutions, and both Nvidia and Qualcomm have chosen QNX OS as its default basic software platform, because there are not many Hypervisor companies to choose from, QNX Hypervisor basically monopolizes the market, this is the basis for $bb to survive in this highly competitive market, and it is also the most basic way to survive moat
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Both Qualcomm and Nvidia announced their terminal chip upgrade products last year, which are expected to be mass-produced around 2025. The computing power of Qualcomm Snapdragon Ride Flex and Nvidia Drive Thor can reach up to 2000TOPS, which is 8 times that of current products. It means that the car terminal is becoming a local HPC high-performance computing platform
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At present, AIGC’s upsurge can indeed accelerate the progress of intelligentization of automobile terminals. Qualcomm CEO said that the capacity of terminal chips to carry large models is estimated to be able to run 20B small models next year for mobile phones, and 60B large models for cars. The imagination that the 60B large model of the car can open up is not small. After all, the recent LIMA and Qlora have shown great potential. The 60B 4-bit is estimated to be able to reach the level of GPT3.5 by then, plus multi-mode state, it can already do a lot of things, the most typical is the application of voice assistant.I think the most important purpose of QNX SDP 8.0 is that it has to integrate the CUDA developer tools of Nvidia, that’s the key point
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Regarding IVY, I have analyzed it separately in the previous post, so I will not state it anymore
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At present, QNX DW is indeed a bit small, but I think that in the process of transforming to electrification, traditional car manufacturers are reducing their car models, and many fuel cars have stopped developing new models. The cycle of car model replacement is about 3 to 5 years, 2020 is the starting point for the transformation of automobile electrification. Most of the car manufacturers' models are just in the beginning of mass production stage, and the time is relatively concentrated, so I think this reason may be the reason for the reduction in the number of QNX DW
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Regarding the timing of the integration of Cybersecurity and IoT, there is no leverage at present. Whether to adopt Cylance’s security solution depends entirely on the choice of OEMs. There are many alternatives, so it is not $bb’s unique ability. However, if IVY can be implemented, the network security business of automobile terminals can become the default solution like the default installation of IE browser on Windows, so the key still depends on whether the IVY platform can be implemented.