RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Q4 good analysis but when you say that revenue for Q4 is going to be 'x', you can't be sure of that.
yes historically Q4 is their best quarter but anything is possible at this time : they need to keep pumiping planes out starting next week otherwise sp will take another dump
NoNameAtAll wrote: BePatient4now,
I think hoping and dreaming is a part of a lot of retail investor decisions. Look at the likes of Tesla and the multiples. There are lots of hopes and dreams there.
In the case of BBD, my thinking is not based on dreaming of some rediluous success. My expectation is that they will build the company back into one that is industry average. That is all that needs to happen for me to win.
I'll explain my thinking.
When the multiples on BBD are compared to other industries, it is clear there is a very low multiple. The analysts publish the multples they use whcih confirms this. With the low multiples, and the relatively short runway to 2025, it causes the analyst sp predictions keep rising pretty quickly (provided BBD meets its guidance).
One interesting aspect of that, however is that analysts have mapped out the revenue/profitability increases as being mostly on the back end of the 2025 guidance (as well as applied a level of discounting due to BBD's past). If you read the Q3 call transcript, you will see that Bart was saying that the revenue and profitability map to 2025 is not linear and is mostly weighted to 2021-2023. That is what accounts for the big differences between analyst sp predictions. If you recognize the revenue/profitabilty increases over this and the next two years, even with the low multiples, then you get a share price that is at least $1.00 more than it is today. On top of that, because of the low multiple values, if you figure out where the price will be in 2 years (when most of the revnue/profitabily increases will be relaized) you can see that it is even higher.
And you can do the math for yourself. Revneue for Q4 is going to be $1.95billion which will make the yearly revenue around $6.23 billion. That is where most analysts are saying the company will be in 2022, not 2021.
On top of that, for the cash burn (which was the reason for the discounting in the share price), BBD is already ahead of its yearly guidance and Q4 will be cash flow positive. When questioned about this on the earnings call Bart acknowledged that they could be issuing revised guidance on that, but they are deciding not to. Even if BBD is flat for cash flow burn on Q4, they will beat guidance. With the new orders coming in (and accompanying deposits), they are not going to be flat and will significantly exceed guidance.
The real reason for the temporary decrease in the share price is that more than 50% of daily traded shares for the past couple of days are from shorting. The obvious strategy there is to short for a couple days, get retail investors to accept that the reduced price is the market price and then cover the shorts. I see many on this board are diligently trying to convince the others that the present price is the market price. In a couple weeks, the shorts will be covered and price will continue on its previous path. So, nothing to worry about as long as you are not trying to day trade.