BBDB859 wrote: Hey Mic.
You're probably right. If not you're really close.
I estimate 24 delivered already is roughly $1.2B income + 300M in service Revenues is roughly $1.5B for a normal Quarter.
They also have to deliver another 14 planes. If they are all Globals and Challengers then we are talking another $700M revenues. So total revenue for Q4/2021, = $2.2B
So total Q1 +Q2 +Q3= $1.35 + $1.53 + $1.45 = $4.325 + $2.2B (Q4) =
$6.5B. That's the yearly income. 2021 =
$6.5B range. Not bad
They are predicting $7.5B for 2025.
Remember that 10 aeroplanes were Lears for Q1 to Q3 this year. The average price/plane should be in the $48M range for the year. The Lears brought the average down this year.
Next year (2022) if they deliver 120 X $48 Mill (AV P/P) = $5.7B + $1.5B (Service)
= $7.2B (2022) This is not far from the 2025 target of $7.5 and $1.5B EBITDA = $500M +FCF
So next year (2022) we will meet the target of 2025 about half way. I could be off by $200M for 2022. But still a big jump from 2021. Even if we get to $7B and EBITDA/FCF goes to $ 950M. This will go along way to cover costs of interest ($500M) + cost of Pearson ($450M). So +FCF for 2022 will be in the $450M range. Once they're at ($450M EBITDA) in 2022, I don't care about the Debt. Because it's not due till 2024 & it's being covered & we have extra cash to deploy on other things. 2022 demand for Business Jets should make these 2022 Revs and EBITDA all come true.
So 2023 will be a great year of $7.4B Revenues & $1.1B (EBITDA). We will then be in great shape for 2024 & 2025. In those years our margins should hit 18/9% because the global cost curve will bring costs so far down, that we'll easily meet the $1.5B EBITDA and $7.5B Revs. In fact we're way ahead of schedule on Revs, and EBITDA, so the only thing is the margins. The margins have to start going up to 15% by 2023. The industry average is around 22%. So Bombardier should achieve those goals given todays demand for Business Jets, and therefore higher margins. Raw material costs will not affect the cost of planes in the next 2 to 3 years, but labour cost could. Remember the cost savings though, from the new Pearson plant, and even some labour reduction there, because of automation of Pearson plant production. So 2023 should be a pivotal year.
Conclusion Load up because 2022 is here in a couple of weeks.
Micmar wrote: Today with the delivery they are at 106 and I think that they are at more than 5.6B$ already. So the prevision of revenue is met the rest is gravy. approximately 200m$. We Will Win.