RE:RE:Textron sold 30 Citation CJ3+. Martel does PR & shares consoBago I've replied to the portions of your post, that I believe to be true of what's going on, from what Management has said.
Your question. bago wrote: On the bright side it shows the market is strong.
The bomber is turning down orders becasue they just
don't have the capability to produce more than clearing some of their
backlog.
Reply.
They 've got their orders to complete for the whole of 2022 for each Quarter already planned out. They don't want to increase production in Q1/2022. Because it will be ineffecient. So that's their focuss. They are taking orders as backlog, instead of increasing the Global Production just in 2022. The reason for that, is Pearson. When Pearson kicks in, in Q1 2023, the Global production will not only increase, but will be a lot more efficient, therefore more profitable. This 2022 is a trasition year, for both the Pearson plant, and also the Service Centers expansions to be completed. This year (2022) will just be fill in time. It will be similar to 2021 in +FCF, but about $400M more in Revs. The profit will be less in 2022, even if the Revs will be higher, and so will EBITDA for 2022. But that extra money will go to Pearson, and the Service completion.. They don't want to throw more money into Downsview, to increase production, because they are transitioning from Downsview to Pearson.
Your question
Not sure how long it will take to get some more
jets out the door to actually be able to take on new orders.
Reply.
They're taking orders for the Globals, but they are booked till close to the end, of 2023, on some Global models. They will ramp up production for the Globals, in 2023 once they know, how many they can get out the door in Pearson, in a year. I'm not sure about the Challenger production capabilities. Though I suspect that they are increasing their production capabilities there as well, depending on the order intake there. They certainly have the capabilities in St. Laurent, Dorval as well, but I have no idea what their order intake is for the Challengers, and whether those orders warrant increases in production.
Your question
They may be a predictable business now but where will the torque
come from to increase the share price.
Reply
The torque should go up these "Naked Shorter's", manipulators AZZ first. Before we see any movement on the SP. That's all I know there. The profit is there, and they will keep increasing the +FCF from 2023 on. But the Bay Street Brothel(Club) can answer that question better for u. Bombardier can't answer that question either. That's why we are getting a Reverse Split.
Your Question
We will have to see what they show
on the maintenance side in Q1 to get an idea how long it will take to
deal with the their debt since they have nothing to sell anymore.
Reply
They've already have shown us that they can deal with their LTD. They've reduced it from $10.1B to $6.7B. EBITDA is paying for the Interest on the balance of $6.7B, comfortably, and they have reduced the LTD by a further $400M this year. I suspect that they are going to reduce it further in 2023 by another $500M to $600M. They are in great shape Financially. You should have no worries there. They are sitting on another $1.7B in cash in reserves. That part of the equation is done and barried.
Your question
I don't think Martel should be going public saying they are turning down
orders because they have already disclosed the numbers expected and
the market is saying that's not enough.
Reply
Martel is saying publically that Bombardier can pick & choose orders in 2022, because they can't overproduce in 2022. Plus what he was saying was that there is no shortage of orders, these days, on the BJ market.
They came in with 100 million FCF all of
2021 which isn't bad compared to the past but at 6.7 billion debt that FCF number
should be closer to 500 million which may happen in 2025 they say.
Reply
The +FCF numbers will suprise all of us in 2023. Once the Capex is done in 2022. Next year 2023 will be a turnaround year. We might not get $500M of +FCF in 2023, but we'll get $300M easy. We will definately get $500M in 2024. So we're ahead of schedule.
Your question
They are doing a good job chipping away but progress will be too slow
at this rate.
[/quote)
Reply I think they're doing great. Patience, there's only 3 Quarters left in 2022. Before we get into 2023. You can't hurry the construction going on right now. Neither can you increase Revenues/EBITDA/+FCF without that Production. Cheers
859