RE:RE:RE:RE:Textron sold 30 Citation CJ3+. Martel does PR & shares conso You bago wrote: You have some pretty lofty expectations and hope
they come to fruition. I belive the metrics have changed
since management said they were on track.
Reply
You keep saying I'm using lofty #'s, and all that. Just go to the Financial Statements for 2021, and look at their guidence. That's what the #'s I'm giving you are coming from, from their 2022 Guidence. These are not my #'s. It's managements #'s. I believe them, because they know what the deliveries each quarter, each year are, and are only guessing on Service Revs. But even the Service Revs are close. What if the Service Revs are way nore than they expect in 2022? Their 2025 Plan was deamed to be conservative by every Analyst in every Canadian Bank. Even the Seeking Alpha article said the Plan was conservative. Look I'm not here to hold your hand on any of their accomplished 2021 Financials. Nor what their 2022 Guidence is going to be. I just painted a picture of where the 2022 +fcf is going. That's the Service Centers, and Pearson. We've been told that. Plus they're cutting costs as they go along.
You
That debt needs
to come down substiantially as they will be paying higher intterest
rates when it's time to refinance.You saying we are ahead of schedule is
just a guess and hope you are right but I don't see it.
Reply
No kidding Sherlock. The debt is coming down. What do you call the $400M payment towards this year's LTD? Chump change? They are using their $1.7B Reserves, and +FCF's from every year from now on, perfectly well. The Interest on the LTD, when it's due on each Bond Maturity, is going to come down, NOT go up, as you say, because of high interest rates. They don't borrow from Conventional Banking. They Borrow from the JUNK BOND MARKET. Those lending rates go according to Rating Institutions ratings. Bombardier's rating is getting better, because of all these payments towards the LTD. Everytime they make a payment towards the LTD, every time they show more +FCF's, & increasing EBITDA's, those borrowing rate come down from the Junk Bond Market for future renewals. That's exactly what they are doing. What is it, that you don't see about being ahead, on their Guidence? .Did you see this $400M payment coming for LTD this year. They are ahead of schedule on LTD. They wouldn't have made that payment, if it would jeopardize their operations. Are you not seeing the patern here? I'll cut you some slack here. Maybe Financing isn't your cup of tea. But I'll just say this. When you're making higher Revs, every year, and your margins are going up, and your CAPEX IS GOING DOWN? Then your EBITDA's are going up, and +FCF's are going up. But the company had a few Capex holes 2021/22 with the Service Centers & Pearson. That's why you don't see higher +FCF for 2022, But in 2023 you will see it. You, NOR I, can stop that from happening.
You
Naked shorts isn't the problem
right now looking at volumes traded and the issue is no buyers.
Reply
"Naked Shorting is the problem for the low SP. So is the manipulation. I don't profess to know everything about trading. But this stock isn't, at where it should be. It's trading way Lower for a company with this amount of Revs, & +FCF's. This Manipulation of the SP will become more apparent to you, and me, in 2023/24/25. That's why I'm saying for Management, NOT to do the R/S till at least 2024. GIVE the INVESTMENT Community the chance to see the discrepancy in the SP from the manipulation more clearly.
You
There may be no shortage of orders right now but the bomber can't take advantage
and those are orders lost.
Reply
Bomber isn't losing orders. Where do you get that? They are taking them on, as backlog for 2023, and on. I just explained the dynamics of their production for 2022 going to 2023 to you. Can't you understand that? The CIS loss of 6% of the orders lost this year, is going to help open some slots up for those, that want quick orders. But EM was just saying that there are tons of orders out there, and they can't build them fast enough. Production doesn't work like you think. EVERY BJ manufacturer can't just turn the tap on for DEMAND on a dime. They're all in the same boat with manufacturing BJ's. But we're going as fast as we can. Just relax, and enjoy the 2022 Revs & increase EBITDA.
You
Remember costs are up for everyone and everything,
they are not immune to inflation and don't think that has been accounted
for in their estimates.
Reply
Look EM told us that too. Yes costs are going up, but so are the SALE PRICES of the planes to cover the costs of the increases. Even on orders that they get caught on by inflation, I'm sure they renegotiate with Buyers. But that negotiation scenario isn't happening. The Backlog isn't that far ahead for inflation to be a problem. The company has ordered parts, years in advance for set prices. How do I know this? Think!!!! They have backlog that they have to deliver for 2022 right? They order the parts for the whole of 2022 year, in middle 2021 or earlier for it. Plus those orders were taken in 2020/21 at higher prices.
You
Always know that management will try and make investors
comfortable until they have to disclose the current situation. Lets see
what Q1 shows.
Reply Thanks for the heads up. Management can't hide right now. That's why I keep saying here on this Board that. The Investment Community & I included in the Retail sector, want to see 2022 finish, and then see, 2 to 3 Quarters of 2023, before we really start to believe. That's why I say that, the R/S is premature. BTW. That's the last time I'm doing this for you. It's too time consuming for me to deal with these, silly
redundant, & doubtful questions, over & over. If you have so much fear? Then sell it all. You are already ahead 250% on your low SP purchase. Or get your investment out, and let the profit ride. No one here has all the answers for you.