RE:RE:RE:RE:Mr Eric Martel Club, you mention "this move is certainly not happening in a vacuum". There are times in the life of a stock where this actually does happen, the most common being "gap-fills". In this scenario, typically on a severe downdraft, the stock washes out to the point where all sellers who had any inkling of selling, sell. The move down has to be absolutely gut-wrenching, and this was certainly the case with Bombardier in the period June 20th to 27th, with the 27th being the day of complete capitulation.
What we're seeing now is pretty classic. After that capitulation, there is that period of bewilderment and confusion, where new buyers are fearful. They see the opportunity, but don't want to get caught in some material reason for the extreme drop, if there is one at all. The next phase is investors starting to nibble at the stock, which then grows into substantial buying as fear receeds and new realization of the opportunity takes over. We are in that phase now, about mid way. Completion of the phase should take the stock back up to about the $25.00 level.
I've spent quite a bit of time looking for an orchestrated shake-out of the stock. This happens at the institutional level, flushing the stock to accumulate at significantly lower prices. Essentially it is a short-attack with a purpose, with them making money on the way down, and then of course on the way back up. While I absolutely think the move down was completely orchestrated, and saw the open manipulation in the trades going through, I couldn't follow that trail to the buy side. Now, that doesn't mean it doesn't exist. There are any number of ways of institutions covering their tracks. But all in, I have full confidence that the move down was absolutely orchestrated. If it was a shakeout, did it work? Absolutely. Mostly at the expense of the retail crowd. Just one of an arsenal of nasty games that get played.
Now, the good news in that shake-out scenario, is that they actually WANT shares, and this is where it gets interesting. I DO think there is a blossoming sentiment shift as it pertains to Bombardier. It's almost as if people had written the company off, and then there is enough positive activity happening in the periphery that all of a sudden a periphery view changes to a focus. It's almost as if the market says "Huh? What's happening there?!" And with that focus comes renewed interest and of course renewed buying.
Yes, the share price was devastated in that most recent severe downdraft. But even more so, the share price has been devastated over a decade long mess. But far more than the recent downdraft, the downdraft of the mess is what really creates the current opportunity. Bombardier IS a different company now, and one that actually has a remarkably bright future. But there lays the opportunity. The company remains a household name, and everyone loves a good comeback story. Will the masses come back to the stock?? Absolutely. Greed and opportunity will take care of that. Being a household name stock will make that happen even quicker. But know too that we here are the "early adopters" of this vision, and mostly at the leading edge of the early adopters. The masses are not there yet, but they will come with just a little patience.
I've made it clear I'm a trader, and my focus is certainly on the shorter time frames, in this case a multi-week swing trade. But if I were an investor (and I'm not), I think Bombardier presents one of the best investment opportunities out there, as the stock is only at the very very beginning of a substantial rise to come. It's why I've said that right now, this stock provides something for ALL types of investors in all time-frames. That remains absolutely true, even with the gains of the past couple of days. There is still a LOT more money to be made right now by just sitting back and enjoying the ride.
Ok, enough for now. If I keep going, I'm going to talk myself into taking an investment position. ;)
clubhouse19 wrote: I wonder seeing what is happening with this move if anything of material value will come out of Farborough. This move is certainly not happening in a vacuum. Moody's was a good sign.but for me other than the technical moves and possibly institutions wetting their feet, the recent positive moves are more than even I would have expected, especially in this market.
We have seen in the past when
moves similar have been set ups for a short attack. I suspect there has been plenty loss limits set up during this period.
We will soo find out as Farbourogh starts on Friday and Martel has been in Europe promoting.
Exciting times gor sure.
Starsearcher80 wrote: The market moves not when the day arrives, but in abdication of that day. What we are seeing is the very first blush of what appears to be a sentiment change; a dawning realization that this company is now on the right path and will not only survive, but be an industry leader and thrive. Personally, I think the starting gun was confirmed by Moody's the other day. The nice thing about major sentiment changes is that they have longevity. While the gains the past couple of days have been nice, again, this is still very very early in the much broader move to come.
johnney wrote: What makes you say this! Once done no problem, but until we get there, many things may happen! Don't get to excited about this stock, go one day at at a time, cause tomorrow has not arrived yet!!