RE:End of the distractionHi Temp.
I've been enjoying this fight (war of words) with the Bombardier, and the Federal Govt on 2 fronts.
1. The Bomber is telling the Federal Govt, "don't forget us" we're now in the military market too, so don't forget us. We don't want your train contracts anymore.
2. We don't need your financial assistance anymore, we can stand on our own feet. We can even produce your military needs. Hope this melee convices the Can. Govt.
Now that the sparring is over. I have a few thoughts. The shares of the Bomber are mostly held by Retail shareholders for now. These retail guys can swing either way, or every which way. They can short. They can swing trade. They can hold for a few bucks for a short period, or can hold for a $15-$20 upside, or can even go Long. So no matter what type of Retail Shareholder's hold these shares, they all have the same fears, and aspirations. They want to trade a company that's lucrative enough for them to make money. So all of our goals as Investors, in my opinion, are aligned. We all want the Bomber to be successful, so we can do our type of Investment trading, and make money. I'm long as you know, so I'll explain my view, from a longs perpective. I'm glad they didn't get this Canadian military contract because, when you broke it down ,on how much money they likely would have had to put up front for this contract, for the next 5 to 6 years for R & D, and Inventory, it would have been another nightmare for the SHARES. I suspect that Retail Shareholders would have started to say, "here we go again". No profit, still a big debt, they're off their 5 year plan to get rid the LTD, and they would have fled the shares. They would have been right to do so IMHO. Because just recently if you remember, they paid that RVG and they were finishing off Pearson, and in just those 2 small items, they had 2 negative Quarters. I'm just saying that the Retail Investor that holds these shares right now, doesn't have the confidence on this company anymore to overcome another mistake. They still have that $5.5B of LTD that they still need to focuss on for the next couple of years.They can't make anymore large Investments, and jepordise either that/those goal(s). We are in a Recession in Canada. We're in a Housing Bubble. We are in a deflationary Market. We're in a financial crisis, like it or not right now, Because of the heavy Debt load by the public sector, and the Can. Govt after printing all this money through covid. So now what??? I predict that we are going to see a temporary, or a prolonged period of financial crisis, folowed by a period of "power of sales" or "liquidations" of Speculative Investment, also known to me as, "Debt Deflation". I can see it coming, because it's already here. We're in this deflationary period right now, because of the Inflated Canadian Real Estate Prices, and Asset prices in general, ALL DEBT-FUELED. This Govt has to lie through their teeth, as they are doing right now. Telling people, "Ya, we'll bring interest rates down" and "we're not in a Recession", etc, etc, etc. Meanwhile this is playing out in the market right now. The survivors will be the ones that are DEBT FREE. It's that siple. But who is Debt-free? This last "Inflationary Bubble" had a lot of people buying at such inflated prices, and those people will be the ones hurt. On top of all this, we have these idiots in power who are filling this country up with IMMIGRANTS. No disrepect here for the Immigrants coming in. But It's just not the time for them come in. I understand and hear that, most of them are leaving anyway, once they see the inflationary RE Home prices, & Rents. So here we are.
The Bomber better get their act together, and focus on getting that LDT down as far as they can, IMHO, because they still owe $5.5B, that's Billion, with a B. Just so that they can start to get their company in order, and survive this onslaught, on the Canadian Economy. Because if the BJ customers start to dwindle or become finicky, their Backlog can get iffy, and/or get reduced to the point where after the 2 years of good Backlog we have now, things can get tighter on the Backlog front too. IMHO. They have a small edge now with Pearson to get their production prices down, and increase production to outpace their competition. So I think that, that should be their main focus. They should just focus on this Economic climate right now and $#@^%$%% the JV with GD, or Airbus, or anybody else. These companies are powerhouses, and they'll %$#@$#% the Bomber, and outlast the Bomber, because they have unlimited resource($), and the Bomber is not in their LEAGUE.
I'm just saying here. That I just want them to focus on their Busines Jet production, and Business Jet Service & repair. The party is over on the easy money for the Economy. Wars everywhere in the world, even the US doesn't know who (what country) to support, when they can't even agree on how much to print to pay for their own Debt.
So that's just my thoughts for the night. Cheers Temp