Bombardier Inc. T.BBD.A

Amazing

[BBDB859]

I was hoping to get an invite from the Sharholders Relations group. But as it turned there was limited room to the meeting, and I think they prefferd to have the press, and the Institutional presence there, as opposed to Retail investors. For me either way turned out fine, as it turned out it wasn't invited. I have a friend visiting from Europe here now, and I'm all over the place doing things in the city and vacinity anyways.

As it turned out, I did the virtual invite I got from the company, and enjoyed it virtually today instead, rather than travelling out there, and going through the facility. Don't get me wrong, I would have rather been there in person to see the facility, but as it turned we stayed out late last night, and when I got up I just stayed in my casual cloths and watched the Investers day virtually. So win win.

Now the Investors day. Great presentation. They unvailed an new order, not as huge as what I expected in firm orders, and the financial part of it was also included in the $14.9B backlog of Q1/24 last week. It also was still very informative as to the company's direction. In short, we are going places boys & girls. This company according to Bart is sound financially.

-$1B of annually +FCF going forward,
-capex of $300M (a good chunk of it going to r&d)
-Great ROIC (Return on investment capital) on their small yearly cash investments
- No need for new clean sheet design for 5 years
-$5B of +FCF coming in the next 5 years.
-Expected to deploy the $5B +FCF towards the LTD, while only paying off around $300M to $400 annually Interest and doing some smart Investments in the company
-Investing it in LTD, Investors return in the form of cash buybacks, and M & A mostly in defense IMO and even a dividend going forward.
-The small cash Investment allocations, are coming in as great contributors to Service, Defense, CPO, Ecojet (R&D), and manufacturing (Pearson).
-There is no fear of recessionary problems going forward from their Investments to diversify the company. Great news to reject claims of the neysayers & fear mongers.
-Strong yearly Liquidity in the comany of around $2B today to $1B to $1.5B  in 2025. Excess will be put on LTD. 2025 objective is 2-2.5 net leverage.
-Great Ratings ahead starting in 2025, from above metrics.
-$12B in TAX deductions carried forward from all the operating losses incurred, which ensures they won't be paying $1 of cash for Income Taxes to the Feds for the next 10 to 15 years ahead
-Rev expected to go up to over $9B in 2025
-Adjusted EBITDA up to $1.5B to $1.6B for 2025 or even $1.7B
-Service % recaptured, is expected to reach 70% from 40% of today's number
-#1 or #2 in every segment in volume sales in every catagory of planes sold. 
-$12B annually in Revs expected by 2030 from Organic growth.

I'll say this from the above. All of the Analysts from all the Institutions that were present there today, will be pulling for Bombardier because the company is on pretty solid ground all around, including being on solid financial ground, given their solid execution of great financial metrics (thanks to Bart D), and execution of the right fundementals of the business from EM. I noticed that Management is communicating well the BofD, and the BofD will make the right decisions going forward, just from the right recomendations of Management language. Management will also be looking out for Investors with recommendation to the BofD.

So full speed ahead for me now. Now Im just going to set targets as to where I want to sell what amounts going forward, and patiently adjusting according to where the SP will be within the Market. I have a feeling that they will recommend to the BofD about looking at going on the NYSE, as EM alluded to. Just FYI, there will always be some shorting going on, but the main direction will be upward, so just enjoy the ride. The Institutional Investment in the stock will start coming in stronger going forward. I suspect when the 2 to 2.5 leverage ratio starts to show up in 2025, that's when the Institutions will start to jump in. Cheers

[Snowey]

Good comments BBDB859. We are having a good day.   Going on NYSE would be a brilliant move.   GLTA   Snowey.

[Tempo1]

Nice summary. I was not sure that we could reach the 70$ mark this week. But given the strenght shown today, It looks like some interrogations or fears were gone away. The adjustment ( slaking the parking brakes), is being done. We could be good for the next 2 weeks for an upside adjustments. 75$ -80$ in 2 weeks, maybe.

[llesage]

Thanks for this great summarization. I thought the online presentation was so thorough. Enjoy the uptrend.

[PabloLafortune]

Thank you for the summary 859 as I was too lazy to listen in. 1) If the US listing comes to pass, the irony will be delicious.  The big 5 banks in Canada like to call National Bank a "regional bank" when their own stock market - the TSX - the one they control - is the very definition of regional. 2) There is a wealth effect of sorts for US publicly listed companies. I 

[Nordico]

Can someone clarify if they mentioned potential US listing today? Given Bomber's business in the States, it would certainly be wise to get on the NYSE.

[stock4life48]

Nordico, I heard nothing about a potential listing on NYSE.  I would also be happy with Nasdaq

[Snowey]

I contribute here because I want to learn to be a better investor. Pablo’s comments today caused me to check meanings.   The Cassandra metaphor relates to a person whose valid warnings or concerns are disbelieved by others. The term originates in Greek mythology.   The Wealth Effect: A tendency on the part of consumers to spend more when they feel wealthier.    See

[PabloLafortune]

Snowey, for more on Helpful Cassandras (as opposed to unhelpful as in whistleblowers?), see Andy Grove (long time CEO of Intel) wiki bio.

[Snowey]

Hi Pablo,   I am reading up on Andy Grove and looking at video interviews he did. This is a great guy. What a life.   Thanks for the tip,   Snowey.

[flamingogold]

859, thanks for the review. Some targets I would like to see met before selling any shares are: 1. Surpassing 2018 high ($139.50) 2. NYSE listing 3. Stock split 4. Dividend These are not necessarily in order but they are coming. GLTA true investors.

[BBDB859]

Thanks for the kind words guys. It's  my pleasure, glad to do it. Flamingo, Pablo, Tempo, Snowey, llesage, Good luck to you all and all the Longs here. It's about time we got a break. Cheers