The CSeries RevolutionFound this somewhere in my digging:
Regional jets - Bombardier CSeries A revolution is happening There seems to be something of a revolution going on - aircraft manufacturers introducing aircraft with more space for passegers!
Following on from the A380, which provides 45% more floor space for 35% more passengers than the 747-400, there is the 787 which has a wider cross section than the A330/A340. At the single aisle market the Embraer 170 and 190 series have wider seats and aisle than other production regional jets, and now Bombardier has announced the CSeries with the widest seat/aisle combination yet.
The CSeries will accommodate 110 or 135 passengers (depending on the variant) with a 18.5" seat width as standard and a 23" aisle.
Product strategy Whilst the Embraer 170 and 190 provide the perfect aircraft for growth from 50 seat regional jets, replacement of current 100 seat aircraft and new short to medium range routes, Bombardier is encroaching into the low end of Airbus and Boeing territory with their proposed new aircraft, although it is the natural route for their product development team, led by Gary Scott, a former participant in defining the 737NG family. The new family would build on a solid market base of customers for the pioneering CRJ series.
The proposed CSeries is distinguished from current competitors in that it promises the capability to economically operate both short and intercontinental services. Of current aircraft in this class, only the A318 and 737-600 offer this capability, although short haul economics for these types is unlikely to be as competitive as the CSeries, and neither are actively scheduled to utilise their range potential to an extensive degree.
A comparison of interior cabin width shows the CSeries, with standard 5 abreast seating in a 136" cabin to offer nearly the same cabin width as the 737NG (3" more at 139"), which has standard 6 abreast seating, and 10" smaller than the A318 which, with a 6 abreast standard has a cabin width of 146". The CSeries essentially offers the same seat width as the A320 family but with wider arm rests and a wider aisle.
Market demand Bombardier quote market forecasts of between 5,000 and 6,000 for this category of aircraft over the next twenty years. (Although note that the aircraft is not anticipated in service until 2010, when six of these years have passed). Given that these figures are from credible forecast sources (manufacturers), a sanity check on them shows that they appear reasonable.
An examination of the structure of this market reveals some interesting insights. Focusing on airlines with aircraft currently configured with 100 to 145 seats should give a reasonable proxy to the market Bombardier is aiming for with this aircraft.
According to Airclaims data (July 2004), there are currently 459 airlines with 5,883 aircraft in service or on order in this market segment. 887, or 18% of the total are on firm order - which indicates that the segment is neither disappearing (in which case the proportion of aircraft on order would be lower) or rapidly growing (in which case it would be higher). However nearly 6,000 aircraft is clearly a solid base to begin with. Also the fleet is reasonably concentrated, with half (2,923) at just 16 airlines, and it so happens that 20% of the airlines really do have 80% of the fleet.
Some of these airlines have already begun fleet replacement programmes with aircraft in this specific seating range. (Note that the arbitrary seating cut-off points may exclude some meaningful data, but a cut-off point has to be chosen somewhere.) However, there are 1,500 aircraft with customers that do not operate current in production aircraft within this seating band.
Airline fleet strategy Apart from the predictable competitive response, major airline fleet strategy will play a major part in deciding the success or otherwise of the CSeries. There are around 10-12 major world airlines with 10 or more aircraft in this seating range that are only out of production types (i.e. not the A320 or 737NG families).
The majority of aircraft in the segment are in the 135 seat sector, with 76% of the current fleet compared to 24% in the 110 seat sector. However this will be due to some extent to a sustained period without a purpose designed aircraft in the 110 sector, so it should be expected that the 110 seat sector will gain more prominence over time.
From a fleet perspective, Northwest, Delta, Air Canada, Lufthansa and SAS are clear early candidates for this class of aircraft in the CSeries timeframe (notwithstanding the Air Canada interest in around 60 Embraer 190s).
So the question becomes more of whether Bombardier will be able to steal market volume from underneath the noses of Company A and Company B, and will Company E be able to sustain the success of its new products in the adjacent 70 and 90 seat sectors.