RE: Why They'll Might Not Re-engine"There are some good reasons to suspect that Boeing and perhaps even Airbus will not re-engine. For the Boeing 737, the wings are too low to the ground for the GTF engines and they have made it know that the economics are not quite there to justify a clean sheet design."
Yes, and a new design would take more years to develop. Even then it would only succeed in getting them to market with a "me too" product which usually isn't good enough when it comes to justifying a completely new redesign. For that the've been waiting for newer engine technology in the form of the "open rotor", however, that isn't expected to be ready until somewhere around 2020.
Even then Pratt and Whitney expects to have an improved GTF ready by that time which will be as efficient as the OR concept - or, I should say, as efficient as the open rotor concept is hoped to become.
"C Series has a clear advantage due to its use of lighter materials and a lower thrust engine. Even if Airbus goes for a GTF it will need the higher thrust og the PW1400 which will cost more and use more fuel than the C series PW 1521G. If the C series still has a 10% fuel savings advantage over a re-engined A320 and it comes to market 3 years earlier, it might not be worth it to the airlines to go with Airbus just for a common fleet. Airbus has to be looking at the numbers carefully and wondering if they too should not just wait until 2020 for the new technologies to mature "
I hear you. Yes, CSeries has a certain advantage. How much of an advantage isn't clear. A lot depends on how effectively Airbus, or Boeing can adjust the GTF to their current models - assuming only minor design changes.
Many factors will come into play here for each manufacturer and each customer. Things like the cost of fuel, how soon aircraft can be delivered, range, ease and cost of maintenance, noise levels, and environmental concerns can be important considerations for some airline customers.
It seems reasonable to expect each manufaturer will do what it can to retain, or take market share and it's reasonable to expect each will see some success in that regard.
At the moment too much depends on unpredictable factors to make a concise estimate. In any evnent, CSeries should do well enough just knocking the socks off Embraer's E190. But the beauty of this program is that it can be extended beyond the CS 100 and CS300 to the over 150-to-190 category. This gives it even greater potential.
Whether CSeries blows them away or eventually establishes itself with only moderate sales success, it's a vital step for the company towards the building of larger, lighter, cleaner, more fuel-efficient aircraft.