Aviation Stocks Soar on Buffett/Graham Valuation RWell, at least somebody else sees good value in the industry.
So, why is Bombardier so weak here? Well, of course there's all the stuff we've already discussed, and as usual anyone new should consider reviewing some of what has already been posted to this board because a lot of important views have already been expressed.
You can view any given poster's material by clicking on that poster's name then going back to read some of those threads.
Of course, markets tend to be a bit myopic in giving far too much weight to more recent news and usually overreacts to conjecture and speculation. At the moment there's speculation CSeries will be delayed. That's viewed as a distinct possibility in the context of long delayse experienced by other manufacturers with their new "clean sheet" designs.
It's certainly possible C Series will run into some problems and from what I can gather, most observers had already been factoring in for a one year delay, nothing has been announced.
On the other hand, as we're seeing with Boeing's 787, and some other programs from Airbus, while delays can be costly, they don't necessarily mean the program won't be protitable, or worthwhile.
Bombardier has given itself more time for the development of CSeries. The company has a less complicated risk-sharing partner framework that should help minimize problems arising from difficulties involved in coordinating the efforts of a much wider range of suppliers.
And Bombardier has the added advantage of being able to benefit from hindsight regarding the development of many similar technologies which have been incorporated in other aircraft built with the new carbon composite materials (such as the 787).
In conclusion, it seems reasonable to expect some problems, due to the high degree of radically new materials and technologies involved, it also seems reaonable to expect those problems won't be insurmountable:
Aviation Stocks Soar on Buffett, Graham Value Radar 09/27/11 - 12:04 PM EDT
NEW YORK (RealMoney) -- Doom and gloom -- that's all one seems to hear today about the economy, the stock market and, indeed, the future. In fact, while the economy is shaky and the markets are gyrating like teenagers in a dance contest, not all companies and industries are suffering equally -- and some aren't suffering at all.
We should not assume today's economy produces only losers and no winners. Even the Depression produced winners, such as the Hollywood movie studios and Chevrolet, which took over the No. 1 spot among carmakers from Ford(F_) during the early 1930s. And while the economy is weak today, the country is not in a depression.
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| Aviation stocks exhibit several of the qualities prized by value investing masters Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham. |
The fact that sunshine is shining on some areas of the economy was highlighted recently when United Technologies(UTX_) announced its purchase of aircraft component maker, Goodrich(GR_). Goodrich, once known for its tires, got out of the tire business over 20 years ago. United Technology's CEO was quoted in The Wall Street Journal as saying, "'We're on the eve of a substantial ramp-up for the commercial aviation industry." And United Technologies is not getting Goodrich on the cheap. It paid a 47% premium above Goodrich's price before the rumors of the takeover began.
My guru strategies are based on the writings of some of history's best investors, and consist of several companies whose businesses include the commercial aviation market, among them, Triumph Group(TGI_). According to the company, it "designs, engineers, manufacturers, repairs and overhauls a broad portfolio of aerostructures, aircraft components, accessories, subassemblies and systems." The company sells to both aircraft manufacturers and airlines.
Peter Lynch is a legendary mutual fund manager, and he wrote about how he invests in his bestseller, One Up on Wall Street. After reading this book, which I highly recommend, I computerized the steps he described in his strategy. The key to this strategy is the price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio, which looks at the price to earnings ratio (P/E) relative to growth and measures the price the investor pays for growth given the stock's current price. Triumph's yield-adjusted PEG is 0.66, based on the average of the three-, four- and five-year historical earnings per share (EPS) growth rates. This is well below the 1.0 maximum allowed by the strategy and means the investor is buying growth at a fairly low price. In addition, the company is doing a good job managing its inventories.