Bombardier Inc. T.BBD.A

RE:RE:Calculations for Sylvain

[Pinotblanc]

mrsly0 wrote: i emailed him your figures. I got this back and the ok to post. it's a point of view. interesting.  no comment if the stock is too high or too low.  i suggest you email him directly next time.  but he might ask for your real name.
good luck 

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This makes no sense at all.  If you look at the profit per aircraft you have to understand first that the price they are sold at is way below the announced/published price.  Also, the A220 production will not change for a long while.  Still generating good lost PLUS the new investments where Bombardier is on the hook for the next $1.1 Billion.

That said.  You have to understand that Airbus will have bought back 100% of the CSeries before it starts being profitable, just after Bombardier spent its $1.1 Billion.  The value will be based on its profit mainly until then, so, not very high as you can understand.  Heard of the FMV?  Fair Market Value… it shall be used for a calculation like this.  At what price the purchase of the small Bombardier portion of the A220?  There are about 10 ways to calculate but it will end up toward the average of them all.  If it was so much of a "Great Deal", Bombardier or Airbus would buy back Quebec portion right now for the amount invested and I'm sure the Governement would say yes.  Their options are already In The Money..  You get the picture.  The question you have to asked is "why not?".  "The Deal" is not soo good?

Bombardier will then only be a contractor to the A220.  Remember Airbus also owns the CSeries technology…  Airbus is/will be pushing very hard on A220  suppliers to, finally one day, being able to produce the A220 with a profit since all the aircraft sold so far are way below its production price.  Bombardier is a supplier.  Not sure what level of profit will be made there.

Lucky Bombardier now has Bellemare.  He is cleaning up the money pitt the Beaudoin/Bombardier left by so badly managing the CSeries marketing for 10 year.  What I worry is that they are still (Bombardier/Beaudoin) dictating the direction of the enterprise with their 53% of the vote and only 13% ownership of the assets of Bombardier Inc.

You really want to unlock the shareholder value and see the stock price rocket?  The day the “family” agree not to have “absolute control” of the company it will be the day.

Until then, look at the Transportation and Business Aircraft groupes where the “Real” profit are made.  Commercial Aircraft is for sell… Whatever you read, CRJ and Q400… Margins are way too small for the amount of dollars invested.  It will take the necessary time but as for this one, finally, the Beaudoin/Bombardier family are listening to Bellemare.  In the mean time they will be trying to increase their backlogs to give them a higher resale value.

It is sad for Quebec, especially with all the investment made, but hey, that’s business and Bombardier just flunks it with the CSeries.  Like they say, 3 things they needed was, Management, Management, Management and they failed on them all with the CSeries.  10 years.

As for an idea on the value, read this one I did quickly.  I was more concern about the priority #1 of the Board but still.  The shareholders will never recover the money invested in the CSeries
https://www.fliegerfaust.com/sylvain-faust-cseries-2530568892.html

This is my personal opinion and I have no problem using my real name.  What about your stocksite friends?  Go ahead and publish it.  It is fine with me.

Thank you for your message.  Sorry for my english, nobody's perfect! 
Sylvain  https;//www.fliegerfaust.com 
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It is all supposition from someone who is not an analyst. Bombardier already took a $500 millions charge for Delta and AC. I am sure it was not the same for the other orders. The first customer surely got a very good price too. Boeing said the CSeries were sold below the production price and Bombardier said it was ridiculous. Bombardier was not willing to provide the details of its sale prices to a competitor. The lost are already in the book so the faster they sell them, they will still recuperate some money. Bombardier could have put the loss of each CSeries as they are sold and it would not look good in the book. You look bad one quarter instead of spreading the pain in many quarters. 

They already took all the loss in one shot. It is digested, no surprise for the future and already in the share price. From now, beside the money needed to be spent, the program will become more and more lucrative. Assuming what will be the cost that Airbus will pay in 2026 for the A220 is pure speculative BS. One thing is sure, Bombardier will recuperate a lot of the money invested. Since I am not an analyst, I will not provide numbers that even an analyst could guess since we do not even know yet how many CSeries will be sold.

I will repeat the story when I was sent in another department and a guy told me to get some parts. I told him that we had a lot of supervisors here. I knew both of them but as much as the guy was pissed off and got the pieces himself, the other guy there could not stop laughing. Here, it is the same. We have the best specialists. You will easily see when they buy or sell, the way they post here... to not be trusted. 

As for the JV with Airbus, I am disgusted but Bombardier had no choice. Let's use some logic for the people who can not stop whining about it. Bellemare had obviously no choice to offer such a deal to Airbus or why did he do it. Beside all the qualities of the CSeries, the competition is not bad either. With the new engines on the 737 and A320, the difference is a lot less for fuel efficiency. Then to compensate, they can add a few more seats to even the cost per seat. Bombardier need to sell the CSeries with a good margin to recuperate its investment but they could not. Airbus and Boeing would sell their planes in the "about" category at production cost which would already be interesting for the airlines. They would make money with the bigger planes. They could even include the A320 or 737 in a big deal with the bigger planes. 

The big "two" can produce a lot more planes (70 per month for Airbus ? (all size)) and about three per month for Bombardier. It is a lot more costly to produce so few planes. Then the suppliers will cost a lot more than if you were ordering 20 times more pieces. These are all disadvantage cost for Bombardier. There are more (efficiency, plant, place, building a line instead of a plant in the US, imposing price to suppliers etc.) but it would be too long to enumerate all. On another point, do you think Bombardier would spend near $1 B more if it could only recuperate a small part of its whole investment? They are planning of making money from the CSeries and it is not a blogger who so often failed on his predictions that I will believe all the frivolous numbers thrown here and there. Pretending to be someone else is not very nice too, mrsly0.