Jim99999 wrote: Shamhorish, it's ok to be optimistic, but please try to be realistic.
Do you understand why the recent credit facility is at such a low rate compared to the long term debt? It is low because it is
secured by inventory and receivables. When the debt is refinanced, it will not be at rates that low.
Also, do you really think there is any chance that BBD can produce a profit of $100M per quarter, while struggling to pay $700M in interest??!!! If they break even I will be impressed.
Nothing wrong with dreaming as long as you realize that is what you are doing.
Jim
Shamhorish wrote: the reason why bbd sh. price is so low, is that the market and off course the rating agencies beleive that bbd has a huge debt and may not be able to meet its obligation.as bbd pay interest of about 700 million per year of interest and that (beside BT problems) is what is killing bbd
in fact, yes, bbd has a huge debt, it was about 9.2-9.4 billion before the last 1 billion facility, so now bbg long term debt stand at 10.2 - 10.4 billions
if we look at the last facility of 1 billion that bbd obtained, bbd is paying only 3.6 -3.9% of interest, while paying 7-8-8.5% on other long term debt
if bbd can reduce the interest paid on the other loans, then the amount of interest paid to service the debt will be cut in almost half !!!! and then it will be managable
al it take is good management of finance, operation, supply chain, etc and that is what Eric Martel is good at, operation
when Alstom deal closes H1 2021, bbd will get some cash, some say 4.5b some say 4.2 some say 3.5, , what ever the amount is (off course it will be better if bbd get the 4.5b) bbd will pay 500 milion to the last 1b facilty, and will have at hand the rest of the amount
let us say bbd will have just 3b after paying 500 milions back, ....bbd have a loan of 1.25b expire in 2021 so if bbd pay that loan bbd will have in cash 1.75b
from now till then (about 4 - 5 quarters) if ba can produce 50 -100 milion per quarter , then bbd will have 1.75 + 400 = 2.25b at another 2Q to end 2021 bbd should have 2.45b
by that time bbd long term debt will be 10.4 - 0.5 - 1.25 = 8.65b
in 2022 bbd must pay back 1.75b but by then, if ba continued to be profitable bbd can pay back 1.75b or even refinance it at lower rate as they did with ther 1 billion facility
no on know how much BA will be able to bring per Q or per year, but as long as it is not loosing money and we are not hit with another covid or thurd world war, i think there is still some hope to get bbd or by then BA in a better zone
i