Bombardier Inc. T.BBD.A

Above 52 close is just the start

[stockitnow]

If we didn't reach 120 delivery then it will be done in 1Q 2023 before Q4 2022 report.  Although I think 120 was delivered while we dont have visibility on it.

Aftermarket sales will be new high and will add to postive cash flow.  We will finally see postive cash flow reported in Q4 2022.

Backlog is solid with $15 Billion USD.  Bombardier has flexline so if the backlog is shrinking, Bombardier with flexline can adjust their delivery numbers to be b2b of 1.0 or higher. Flexline can also address supply chain constraints.

During 2008 meltdown most Jet buyers deffered/delayed their orders and did not cancel their orders outright.  In 2023 the recession might impact delivery but I think Bombardier already said they will deliver less in 2023 then in 2022 due to supply chain.  So I think recession reduction wont have much impact on Bombardier.

Recession will impact airlines more, this will  cause reduction in frequency and canceling of some routes.  This will help with Challenger jet demand and increase utilization with fraction ownership.  Recall, upcoming recession will impact smaller companies more then medium and large cap companies.  It is medium and large cap business that are thriving and use bizz jets.

2023 will be year of green for Bombardier.

[johnney]

As you mentioned c'est, if they didn't deliver the remaining jets to get to 120, you say they will deliver it in Q1, 2023, but will it be booked on 4th quarter results for the year 2022!!

[stockitnow]

No it won't count.  But it reduces inventory  cost and brings in revenue for 2023.

[johnney]

Thanks for the answer!

[Truthifest]

Company mgmt has twice told us that 2023 delivery guidance is 15-20% greater than 2022's "at least 120", most recently during the Q3 results call. The folks here love to track exports.  The total so far is 116.  The deficit of at least 4 is large.  How would it be made up?--intra-Canadian sales possibly, for 1 or 2?  Exports Sat Dec 30? Can't tell if lb1'

[stockitnow]

Flexline is short for flexibility of changing units to build based on demand for month/quarter/year etc. Most OEM does that.  You have heard of boeing and Airbus increases and decreasing number of aircraft builds to meet market demnd?  If you haven't heard of flexline then it doesn't mean it doesn't exits.   If those 4 not delivered in 2022 will be in 2023. 

[Truthifest]

Of course production flexibility is a good thing, but not meeting guidance never is, especially given lingering investor skepticism of the company.   If they're short in Q4 deliveries, time will have to be spend finishing and delivering them next year, time that would have been spent on 2023's production and deliveries.  Maybe not a lot of time, but not a good development

[lb1temporary]

Time will tell. In last january, the first 2022 delivery happened after the january 25 meaning that no bizjet had been left almost completed at 2021 year's end. Let's wait and see if something has been left almost completed. Wait the deliveries numbers of the next 2  weeks.  At 42 deliveries, it would be a good quarter. The problem this year was the low numbers of the

[BBDB859]

My 2 cents worth on the subject. I don't think a delivery varience of a plane or 2, either up, or down, will impact any Quarter. That's $100M varience, in Revs either way. It's better for the Balance sheet, to be an increase by $100M of course in the Quarter than a decrease. But the shareholders are not going to overeact on the SP either up or down on $100M. I think what we are seeing

[johnney]

BBDB859. I don't think that 1 or 2 planes less, will make a big difference for the 4th Quarter! It's only that Martel has category mentioned that 120 deliveries and more if I'm not mistaken in 2022, but the day is not finished yet! Maybe it has been done!!

[johnney]

Correction: BBDbB859, made a mistake on posting! For one or two less deliveries, won't make much difference for 2022!

[stockitnow]

Debt reduction and positive cash flow are the drivers for sp. It doesn't matter if there is reduction in units build. There is a solid backlog, and no buyer is going to cancel afer putting millions down as deposit for a short term recession. The big cash generator without billions locked up on inventory is aftermarket sales and support.  And this division is growing and will continue to

[Truthifest]

Thx for ur thoughts, guys.  Best part of this chat room, for me, is adult discussion like this. A shortage of 1 or 2 planes in a quarter is not a big deal.  4, 6, or even up to 9, can be, depending on the reason.  I say 4 because it might be that from 120 - 116.  6 because some investors might have taken the "at least 120" guidance to mean perhaps a couple more

[HopefulJuan]

There is a chance 2022 could reach $7 B. Even if were to level off and stay there the share price and market cap are greatly undervalued. Once earnings are reported a proper PE ratio will put the market cap in the $24 B range. Without market intervention this will be sooner than some think.

[johnney]

HopefulJuan. If the market cap hits the $24B, what price would be the S/P then!!

[Micmar]

245.50

[johnney]

That would be close to $10, before the R/S, not impossible at all!!

[johnney]

At the prices we are now, for sure we are undervalued, but the year is just beginning!

[johnney]

Micmar, merci pour la reponse!

[johnney]

HopefulJuan, a market cap of $24B, that won't happen for 2023, no doubt on that and  not for 2024 either! Something more than extraordinarily has to happen for this!