Post by
Lukegermany on Sep 25, 2023 3:46pm
2 posaible scenarios
1.
- They dont meet the deliveried and burn mote Cashflow in q3 as expected
- there is no big order coming
- Person is delayed
- orders are low
Or
2. Someone will with all Power come cheap in before they start to Blow up every estimate
Look they Want make NEARLY 800 FCF in Q3+q4..they will end up at nearly 2 billion cash..so 800 million can go to pay debt..
When they realy get a 4-5 billion order they will get how much as a Front pay? 30% 40% 50 %..this will bring an big Chuck FCF 30% will bring another 1.2-1.5 billion..from what they can surely Adress 700-800 million additional to pay debt..thats 1.5 billion debt payment.. how much we have now? 5.6? After that we would have only 4.1 billion with 1.5 ebitda? And 6% from 1.5 less interest Patient.. its another 85 million more cash per year. I cannot believe thats point 1 is possible after that good work in the past 2 years.
This have to come to an end in the next 6 weeks..really hope for 15-17.octobre. where is rumor there must be something
Comment by
Shamhorish on Sep 25, 2023 3:55pm
NO NO NO NO EVEN IF BBD GETS AN ORDER OF 4-5 BILLIONS that will be in10 to 15 years if all options are exercised so any big order will be 15 -20-25 jets AND OPTIONS FOR 10 OR SO MORE PER YEAR so down payment will be on what is ordered not on options too
Comment by
Lukegermany on Sep 26, 2023 5:31am
hey Sham...sorry 5 Billion for 10 years would be a joke...500 Million order per year is not enough to be notable. textron get 30 Billion for 15 year with all options... the bomber need a 5 billion order without options now or a 30 billion for 10 years with some options..everything else is not enough imho I read somewhere that an option has to be paid with 10% ...but i dont know it exactly.