Why Weather Forecasters Are More Accurate Than Stock Analyst buy/hold/sell ...quite simple to do an analysis and you do no need to use triple integrals in the calculations. Lol.
https://www.benzinga.com/general/topics/12/09/2897178/why-weather-forecasters-are-more-accurate-than-stock-analysts
We took a look at this phenomenon back in June 2010, when Tadeusz Tyszka and Piotr Zielonka of the Leon Kozminski Centre for Market Psychology at the Academy of Entrepreneurship and Management in Warsaw published a study called Expert Judgments: Financial Analysts vs. Weather Forecasters. Tyszka and Zielonka asked two groups of experts to “predict corresponding events (the value of the Stock Exchange Index and the average temperature of the next month).”
They found that “[a]lthough both groups of experts revealed the overconfidence effect, this effect was significantly higher among financial analysts than among the weather forecasters.”
Their conclusion:
In the group of financial analysts one-third of the participants succeeded in their forecast and in the group of weather forecasters approximately two-thirds of the participants succeeded in their forecast.