RE:RE:RE:RE:The worst investment in O&G patch?wtf happened here?
Hello Mr. Kavern23, this is easy enough to answer. What happened here is the "artifiical" collapse of NG prices AND horrid decision making. That's what happened. As the NG pricing issue is pretty much out of their hands or control, the second was probably more devastating though. VRY bad decisions or choices were made that adversly affect the stock price Teo of the biggest being the lack of significant hedges which anyone with XP & a brain should have done when prices exploded close to $10!!!) and the not affordable, unsustainable VERY generous dividend being paidout........with toxic debt! Which consequenlty led all this to folks/investors losing confidence in mgmt to properly & effectively steer the company in the right direction & profitability.
THat's WTH happened.......
"Maybe I am too honest when I post and blunt, but how is Bir share price this high."
It's OK to be honest, nothing wrong with that, but sometimes we need to VERY blunt so it gets drilled into peoples minds so they understand. But to answer your question, the stock is slightly trading higher than it should because it's paying out a 10%+ divvy. So many folks will take the risk just to get a piece of that lucrative action. Aside form that, most of the heavy gassers, including Birch are in sink, trading around the same multiple of about $30k boepd......+/- 2K.
"It sucks but none of us control the aeco price hedge curve. Hedge price for january is 3 dollars right now."
NO Canadian heavyily weighted gasser is making coin at sub $3 HH pricing. NONE, expect for maybe Peyto, but even they will be strgugling to turn a profit at these prices levels. And alot of thesde operators will be in dire trouble in 2024 when most of their lucrative hedges expire and they join Birch in the "losing their shirst" Mile High Club. Any gasser hedging now, at below $3 HH gas, shoud be sent to a mental institution and definitely DESRVERS to go BK. If they weren't smart enough to hedge at $10 gas, hopefully for s/h sake, they won't be dumb enough to do it at sub $3.
"I hope things turn around and the excess NG can go but so little caution on twitter and media."
The paper markets are controlling the price of NG for political reasons. If you want to know those reasons, just read my previous posts on the many O&G forums i post on. I've mentioned it there several times why NG prices are where they are and WHY they will continue to stay there until some things chnage.
GLTA