Post by
mrmomo on Nov 13, 2023 12:31pm
Q3 coming up....!!!!
As a heavily weighted NG producer.......being on the wrong side or both those trades for Birch, we'll see just HOW BAD their situation is with this Qtr. And if or how long they can keep paying out that REDiculously high divvy for. Imho, though i;m NOT a s/h here, i think those that are, should pay more attention to WHAT is said in the MD&A report or the CC preceeding the earnings report. The earnings themselves or revenue imho can be quite accurately predicted for Birch for this QTR, based on the ER of others in the sector. So this is NOT what will affect the stock. i think THAT has been mostly already factored into the stock price.............It's just a question of HOW BAD it will be for Birch & it's s/h.
As sated before, i think earnings will be slightly lower than last qtr (around $175M i think i said if i remember correctly!), and at best..... completely FLAT for the QTR. The expenses & costs side are more interesting to watch for and should be for others as well, especialy holders. And for others on here, those pumping the stock, clamoring this is CHEAP...........these people don't know WTH they're talking about. The stock is "fairly" valued IMHO, at this point in time, due to very low NG prices, along with Birch not being hedged at all, so therefore NO protection of future cashflow and the likellyhood of continued low NG prices for the forseeable future.
THOSE are the facts & realities of Birchcliff at this moment......Not high doses of hopium or pinning your hopes on falsehood or dreams of delusions. Hopefully things get better for Birch & its s/h as NG pricing improves in 2024 & beyond, as i don't see NG improving, personally, for quite some time or until the Russian conundrum is resolved. But by that time, Birch MAY not be around in it's current form any longer..........as a sale or merger is VERY likely in 2024. And i can see guys like Canadian UnNatural salivating or foaming at the mouth, just think about it right now. Because THESE are the types of situations CNQ goes after.........O&G operators where their base NAV has been decimated AND who are in a difficult position.
If you look at CNQ most recent & last acquisitions, they've ALL been small heavily weighted NG producers. like Birch.........So i'm pretty certain they got Birch on their radar & in their sight, as they haven't made any asset acquisition in some time......and they are DUE.......soooon. For Birch's sake, i hope they can find an "alternative" option than selling themselves for peanuts (peanuts in terms of future potential that is NOT current!) to someone like Canadian UnNatural......
And hopefully for Birch s/h.....the first step will be to cut completely that crazy divvy so they can buy themselves MORE time to decide what to do or view more options.....
GLTA
Comment by
itsalie on Nov 13, 2023 12:56pm
so full disclosure, you have a short postion on the stock?
Comment by
PlutusofCrete on Nov 13, 2023 1:14pm
Birchcliff does not do conference calls....this shows how closely you follow the company.
Comment by
itsalie on Nov 13, 2023 2:58pm
The ceo usually goes in bnn shortly after.. that guy could sell ice cubes to an eskimo. too bad he is retiring
Comment by
PlutusofCrete on Nov 13, 2023 3:24pm
lol as Chairman of the Board he will not be too far away. and BNN interviews for 3-5 mins isn't much of a conference call. It will be interesting if Chris joins Jeff on BNN as to pass the torch or perhaps have Chris go on after Q3 results and discuss plans for 2024.
Comment by
PlutusofCrete on Nov 14, 2023 8:28am
The situation is not dire. Don't get so stressed...please give the caps lock a break.