Post by
mrmomo on Feb 15, 2024 8:58am
I'm out......& some predictions!
SOLD OUT last week during that short seller covering. Not the DEAD CAT bounce i was looking for to leave this investment for good, wanting something closer to ~$6, but better that than for my modest investment to keep shrinking smaller than it was. Came out of this with about a 15% loss, but this was a bet, a gamble to begin with for me, hoping Birch would do the RIGHT THING for investors. Unfortunatelt they did not......and it wasn't a BIG surprise in the end.
To be honest here, there was only two reasons to be invested in thi, the more thna generous passive income & the possibility of some M&A deal. So with both of those being thrown out the window a few weeks ago, there's NO reason at all to stay invested.....for anyone. Unless you wish for your investment here, to continue losing its intergrity & value to the point of being worthless with time.
In my case, my losses aren't THAT bad, but i bet you have many investors here who've lost more than 50% and a few who even though had bought much lower than what it's currently trading right now, have seen their investment drop by 2/3 in the last year AND even taken some steep opportunity costs by staying invested here. Which imo, the lattwr is probably EVEN worse than the former. So ask yourselves this, WHAT are you still doing here?
If some of you guys are still around because of the "reduced" divvy payout, then rest assured that even that will not be sustainable much longer with NG prices where they are now. And i've stated this fact MANY times on here and warned you all. So being invested or staying invested in Birch solely for the dividend was the wrong move, as there were better, safer bets to make on that front, like Peyto or Cardinal. So really if you look at it, without any prospect for NG pricing improving and the divvy factor neing taken out, there was REALLY only ONE reason to be invested here. And that's the reasoning that I had to invest in Birch, which was the only logical outcome, some possible M&A deal.
Unfortunately for all of us, especially for the folks who keep on holding & hoping for better days, that possibility was completely blown up & thrown in the the trash bin with the REDiculous company update and the REDiculous BNN interview that came soon after. So in essence, their will be no reprieve, no deal and no possibility for the company to be a viable entity in the coming 12 months. Only more pain shall follow from that point forward, until these guys finally get it and do the RIGHT thing.
Whether the good (and i use this term VERY loosely!) folks do get it or not in the end, remains to be seen. Because for them the SIS tactics they've been using up to now, really hasn't worked for them at all. And for those that don't know what i mean by "SIS Tactics", i mean the "Stubborn, Ignorant & Stupid" approach to manage a company. And manage it into the literal ground in good time......along with all it's investors. At least some of our resident pumpers & stuanch supporters of the company like Mr. PlutusofCrete, have finally smartened up and seen the light snd have moved on from this mess. For others, i guess like the company's mgmt, you guys will need for that noose around your necks to get A LOT tigter before you see that SAME light and become enligtened as well.
For those with the ole Hopium still bouncing around in you, hoping this turns around. Just know this and this is boh a prediction & WARNING as well. So i'm gicing you a 2 fer here as a farwell present, as a bonus. First you better get on your knees and pray to Jesus Trump doesn't end up in Potus. Because if he does, it's the end for Canadian & Alberta oil patch...as it currently is. The bad news is, while you're on all fours praying to the good Lord for that outcome not to happen, you better ask for Senile Sleepy Joe to NOT BE the one as well. LOL. Why? Because if he & Dems get another 4 years....it will be Mad MAX time in ALL of North America and you'll probable witness one of the biggest markets slumps/crashes in recent times. So guess what? it's a Lose/Lose scenario....no matter how you look at it for Canadian O&G.
So you folks digging in & holding for the long term, better brace for some REALLY nasty times, probably comparable of what we saw between 2016-2020 in the sector. And please don't listen to the folks that say that NG prices will improve, they won't and my guees is that they'll bottom around $1 and probably average about $1.50 for 2024 & 2025.....should Trump win. And those levels, guys like Birch are basically insolvent. And as NG keeps going lower, i fully expect for Birch mgmt to be "forced" to cut the ramining divvy .......completely sometime before the 2nd half of 2024.
So what's the FINAL message here? You better HOPE the folks at Birch HQ finally GET IT and either Merge or Sellout ....because if they don't...... it will be a deadly outcome for all.
GLTA