Have a $41.00 target. GLTA
BORALEX INC. CLASS A Q4/23 First Look: Better-than-expected Results On Favourable
France Wind; Development Update Shows Solid Progress
Summary: Adjusted EBITDA was 22%/17% above our/consensus estimates.
Generation was stronger than we assumed, particularly in France, which
boosted the wind segment results (more than offsetting higher devex/G&A).
The development update was positive. Beyond being active and successful
in RFPs (recall BLX secured 183 net MW in the recent Quebec RFP), BLX
advanced projects in its development pipeline and its secured growth project
list grew by 162MW. Existing advanced projects are progressing well with no
material changes. Further, liquidity to fund growth remains solid ($155MM
increase Q/Q) enhanced by strong AFFO in Q4. Conference Call:
11:00 a.m. ET; dial-in: 1-855-513-1368.
Operating Results (See inside this note for a summary results table)
Generation: Overall, generation was 1% above long-term average (LTA)
and above our expectations. Wind was 2% above LTA (North America was
10% below, France was 18% above) while hydro was 5% above LTA/our
estimate and solar was 17% below LTA (11% below our forecast).
Adjusted EBITDA: Adjusted EBITDA of $229MM was above our estimate of
$188MM and consensus of $196MM. Relative to our forecast, the wind
segment was stronger (primarily due to stronger generation in France), while
hydro and solar were generally in line with our forecasts. Higher Corp. &
Adjustments were a modest drag on results.
Additional Takeaways
Development Update: The secured growth pipeline increases by 162MW,
with BLX finalizing wind projects in France and Quebec. There were minor
changes to capex on some existing projects, but nothing material. Further,
BLX progressed 338MW from its mid-stage pipeline to its advanced-stage
pipeline and added some more early-stage development pipeline (total
pipeline is up 262MW). BLX is well positioned to continue to bid into recuring
RFPs across its key growth markets.
Funding Update: Overall, BLX is in a decent position with ~$550MM of
available liquidity to support its growth.