RE:RE:RE:Will Bonterra generate 110 million + FCF in 2024? From reading the deck and their news releases I expect an announcement in late Q3 or early Q4. Maybe with Q3 financials?
to actually start paying dividends - the latest should be in Q1 of 2024, earliest is in Q4 this year.
Mgt has stated they want zero balance on the bank line when dividends start.
The drop in gas prices last winter moved the goalpost a little. We are on track or a little ahead of guidance still, but we would have handily beat estimates except for the crazy weather. Drilling has been solid. Guidance was based on 74.50 WTI and strip gas.
The drilling plan for the last 6 months is for about 18 or 19 wells costing roughly 50 million in the last two quarters.
they should free cash flow around 20 million per quarter or 50/60 million annually. About 17 million is paid down on the term loan this year, leaving 33-43 to be paid on the credit line. By year end the credit line should be anywhere from paid off to a net credit of 15 million.
production was run down a little in Q4/2022 while they reduced debt, ditched BDC/EDC and arranged a new bank line and term loan. The heavy Q1 drilling ensured this eas the third year that annual production grows 3-500 boe/day. The difference is that we should be starting Q1 at 14,000 boe/d instead of 12,800. Given 14k is the production target for 2024, we should be able to spend 30 -35 million less in 2024 to maintain production.
Therefore, free cash flow should come in between 85 to 120 million next year depending on commodity prices.
25% ROC (stated goal) means 20-30 million in dividends.