Bonterra Energy Corp T.BNE

New operations update out

[kavern23]

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/bonterra-energy-corp-provides-operations-update-and-announces-fully-funded-2021-budget-and-guidance-845452099.html

[AliNaimi]

Humbly this is the cashflow I was modelling, we are looking at approx $2.70 CF per share under current commodity pricing. with $20 million FCF even after huge growth rofile for 2021.(30%) 60C FCF per share with BNE growth profile deserves much higher multiple. Under normal market conditions BNE should already trade at $6 a share.

[Tim14235]

But now in the high debt crowd. Cannot do much for equity but pay down debt. 1+ year to get debt and production where it was.

[kavern23]

I still think Obsidian will be sucessful in either current bid or potentially some other form. Instutional investors hold the cards here as insider ownship is only 15% according to the presentation.  This large investors are likely to have a bigger picture timefram then average retail investor who is usually short term focused. The problem with drilling cheaper and shorter wells in Pembina

[blackdog]

I suggest that the premises to your series of questions are flawed. Obsidian’s offer has been summarily rejected and why it has been continued in the face of this rejection is the better question; perhaps only out of inertia as it is now Obsidian whose financial stability and leadership is under review. Obsidian failed to appreciate that Bonterra stock is widely and closely held by retail

[Hendrick3]

I think the current price of over $3 is a pretty reasonable multiple of a 60 cent free cash flow. Keep in mind that presumes an average of $60 which certainly is not guaranteed.  For example Baytex is looking at 50 cents free cash flow and is price at a $1. IPO is on pace for a 20 cent free cash flow and is valued at 45 cents. OBE will probably make about a $1 FCF and trades at $1.35. 

[AliNaimi]

Those comparisons are false as BNE's FCF is not 60 cents. A neutral budget to maintain production would see FCF of about $1.50 @ $60 wti. That is why BNE trades similar to the names you mention. We can rehash OBE offer ad nausem but the fact remains it has been rejected twice because it is inadequate. BNE is now in a much better finiancial position at $60 oil then when offer was made. 2022 at

[Desjade]

Good post AliNaimi, We can argue with some of the details/inputs, but by-and-large my numbers reflect your figures (I'm a little under  on the  under vs your figures). As for the debt, I agree we could see Debt/CFO close on 2X pretty closely, but I would argue what is more exciting would be Debt/PDP at FYE 2021. We could see a combination of paying down some debt in FY21 and