RE:What are the odds...This is one of the possibilities and in my view , liklihood of this happening is very high if covid situation and stock price doesn't recover in near term. my rationale is that BAM's primary interest is to maximize the wealth of its own shareholders and not necessarily the shareholders of BPY. BAM is testing the water with offer to purchase 74 million shares at 12USD . if it goes well, then they may sweeten the pot a bit and can buy out remaininng ones or offer BAM shares and take BPY private. they may not want to screw BPY shareholders by offering rock bottom buyout price but offer will be much lower than the NAV. ENB did something similar when it took Enbridge Income Fund private couple of year ago.
$15 USD is a good price and many shareholders will take it especially those who got in after March this year. I do see minimal risk in owning/buying BPY because of BAM backing. good luch pal .. hope it works out for you,