Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Alternate Symbol(s): BTE

Energy Oil & Gas E&P

Baytex Energy Corp. is a Canada-based energy company. The Company is engaged in the acquisition, development and production of crude oil and natural gas in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and in the Eagle Ford in the United States. Its crude oil and natural gas operations are organized into three main operating areas: Light Oil USA (Eagle Ford), Light Oil Canada (Pembina Duvernay / Viking) and Heavy Oil Canada (Peace River / Peavine / Lloydminster). Its Eagle Ford assets are located in the core of the liquids-rich Eagle Ford shale in South Texas. The Eagle Ford shale covers approximately 162,000 net acres of crude oil operations. Its Viking assets are located in the Dodsland area in southwest Saskatchewan and in the Esther area of southeastern Alberta. It also holds 100% working interest land position in the East Duvernay resource play in central Alberta.

TSX:BTE - Post by User

Baytex Energy Corp > Average price $3.50

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Comment by zenith9on Dec 10, 2020 2:21pm

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Post# 32078264

RE:RE:RE:Average price $3.50

I have several skews for 'weak hand' factors and investor sentiment generators. Historical price action is also considered. This scales back the exponential aspect significantly.

Maxmoe wrote: Being a bit of a math geek I question your model. The operating leverage from 50 to 60 to 70 should not be a curve with a declining slope. Ie the rate of change per $10 change in WTI should grow exponentially, not decline per your model. Free cash flow grows exponentially and the NAV of the oil in the ground grows exponentially. Without the benefit of being able to pick apart the model directly, I would revise your target at 60 to $2.50 and for wti70 to $6.00. For what it's worth, that's my 2 cents .

zenith9 wrote: According to my proprietary modelling and analysis the price should play out as follows:

WTI $50 BTE $1.06 CAD
WTI $60 BTE $1.91 CAD
WTI $70 BTE $2.75 CAD
WTI $75+ BTE $3+ CAD

So yes, we need WTI to be well over $75 to get to your break-even. Gulf countries need their soverign wealth funds to be built back up so price stimulation may come quicker than we expect. I think a reasonable time frame is 2 yrs give or take. So the answer to your question would be no.

I hope this is helpful.