Baytex move up today and dates to considerToday 2/1 – there is likely new money to put to work in funds. Volume is not unusually high as of now.
We all know earnings is Thursday Feb 24 This is four trading days after options expiration.
Options expire the week of 2/14 – 2/18 – These are fewer contracts relative to March
https://www.m-x.ca/en/trading/data/quotes?symbol=BTE*
Next Options expire the week of 3/14 – 3/18 – These are greater contracts relative to February.
** Note the open interest of Calls vs. Puts, and the daily volume in the same.
The date BTEGF (US equivalent of Toronto BTE) breaches $4.00 US is unknown. What is known, is that when BTEGF can go above $4.00 US, it will start a 30 day clock, that will qualify BTEGF to resume trading on the NYSE, if it can stay above this level. This is Important.
Q1 2022 Ends on Thursday March 31.
April Options Expire the week of 4/11 – 4/15.
Q1 2021 earnings 4/30/21. It is reasonable to expect Q1 2022 release to be nearly the same.
Here is my take on the action today. It is probably just new contributions being put to work by funds. It is nice, and could also lose momentum.
The options are confirming what we already know. This YE/Q4 report is going to be good. The guidance is what those who want price suppression are looking for.
There is one last hope for those who shorted, and hedged with shorts, at $5 Toronto or less. The week of 2/14 – 2/18 is going to be interesting. There could be a lot of price suppression and manipulation during this week. The reason I think this will happen, is a perception of losses. The inventory accumulated during the last pullback, which could be 20 to 70 million shares, may be used to drive the price down one last time, so shorts can be covered in the money. Time is not on their side. What needs to happen before that, is a lot of volume on the buy side. If we get that, it will make the manipulation more difficult, as the float is shrinking every day.
Weekly volume has been in the 20-40 million share range, since the second week of September 2021. I think that number can easily rise to 30-50 million after earnings report, and 40-60 million after BTEGF US gets back on the NYSE. This is what makes the short position have trouble sleeping at night. The call options buyers for Feb / March expiration, may be short positions buying upside protection for current positions, or the new short positions they intend to make the week 2/14/22 – 2/18/22 to drive the price down. What percentage of longs vs shorts are buying those options, their reason is unknown for doing so, and can not be quantified.
BTE Canada will need to get to about $5.40 before this breakout is confirmed. If it drops back, it will be no surprise to me. If it keeps going up, then I will be thrilled, as will most of the readers on this board.