RE:Maybe closer with Iran. WTI reacting a bitBayStreetWolfTO wrote: Biden might be saved with some extra barrels?
WTI moved $4.00 on initial reports....so I guess $91.00 vs $95.00
I have read anywhere from a $5-10 discount to current prices with Iran in the mix. Still doesn't matter even $85-90 is massive FCF over $715 million per year at that level with a 10% drop in WTI (if that happened). Baytex would still be printing money at that rate and would be WAY over the upper management plan.
That said average WTI for 2021 was only $65.35. Q4-2021 was $76.04, Q1-2022 is $79.36
"Iran's nuclear top negotiator Kani says after weeks of intensive talks, "we are closer than ever to an agreement"
I think the market will over react to Iranian barrels. Two reason. First, from what I read satellite tracking already shows the Iranians are exporting oil so what we're talking about potentially is an increase in production beyond what they're currently unofficially exporting. Secondly, unless they're pumping those barrels into storage, the production is offline now and we've learned throughout this pandemic that offline production doesn't just come back online because the Americans lifted sanctions. It's going to take time for that production to come back online and while that time is a wasting, demand is growing. The Americans can get their production levels back to prepandemic and all but two opec+ countries are under pumping quota. Why are the Iranians just going to pump at will because sanctions are lifted?