RE:RE:RE:Nuttal's new fundHi JD, I did not the Eagle Ford reduction. Here is what I found
I will take the top 4 areas on Capex
Now I believe Viking (light oil) and Eagle Ford (light oil) have different netbacks
I believe I read Viking Netback = $48 BOE @ $65 oil whereas Eagle Ford is only $39 BOE @ $65 oil
If you can confirm that would be good as I am trying to locate all the info
So based on this it appears to me...they are focusing on the higher netback areas (which I was hoping)
You see in 2022 Capex and net wells in that viking area is taking away from Eagle Ford....not too mention Capex is up.
So I guess it comes back to what is the best bang for your buck as we talked about earlier.
If they have determined the netback of Viking is better than Eagle Ford and I believe they have over 1,000 locations....operationally maybe this is the plan...to increase FCF quicker..
Just my thoughts on what I have found/read.
BSW
| | 2022 | | 2021 | |
| | Net Wells | Capex ($M) | Net Wells | Capex ($M) |
| Viking | 145 | 165 | 114 | 116 |
| Heavy | 48 | 100 | 21.5 | 38 |
| Eagle | 14 | 90 | 23 | 105 |
| Clear | 18 | 35 | 9 | 12 |
| | 225 | 390 | 167.5 | 271 |
JohnnyDoe wrote: BayStreetWolfTO wrote: Hi JD, always value your thoughts.
Agreed some good stuff
Agreed I would like a bit more info on Clearwater (but maybe that comes in todays call)
Lots of Q1 drilling so really I think Q1 will have more sizzle (better pricing, better hedges, lots more on Clearwater and the impending buyback start) so not far away about 60 days for that.
I would like to see an updated 5 year plan (page 14 of the monthly presentation) based on $75 oil versus the current $65. I would also like to see a SRP versus a LRP with increased Clearwater info.
Agreed I noticed the new fund...I am well diversified and not looking for dividends here (as I have them elsewhere) but understand some may look for that here. Me I look for debt and buybacks so a 75/25 split works for me...WCP imo has gotten VERY little credit for the dividend along with the dividend increases. I like WCP a lot but it lags even with all that stuff...so I don't know. Only 3 companies on the energy index exceed BTE YTD but lets see how that evolves
I do think many don't understand debt is a form of shareholder return but I am happy with the $800m target for next year...this ensures no more silly hedges going forward (2023 looks good) and the banks can't "act" up...
Puts us in better control.
Some may have looked for a good bump today but I guess being long as I have communicated all along I look to June 30, 2023...by than I still am hopeful the debt will be where we want, buybacks will have progressed, clearwater will be known and a dividend will be in reach.
For me for now back to monitoring daily/weekly data and watching macro events...while collecting my other dividends and allocating the money.
Thanks for sharing
JohnnyDoe wrote: Like everyone else I read thru the reports from yesterday. Lots of good stuff. I had higher expectations for clearwater numbers though
I've posted before about dividends. To be clear, because of how I am invested, I don't want additional dividends in my portfolio, they actually create a bit of a problem. But, I've posted that with all the talk about "meaningful" shareholder returns, those companies without a decent dividend policy are not likely to see the same growth as though with. Yesterday Nuttal announces an income fund. Great. It creates new institutional demand. But BTE won't be on that radar. He noted 65% cdn content in that fund. It's pretty easy to run down the list of cdn companies and see where that money will land and where it won't. And Nuttal is a guy with a platform to communicate to the masses and of course he pumps what he holds. I've done really well with cdn oil stocks during this pandemic but the past 24 hours has me reconsidering where the growth might be in the next 18 months
wolf, I am not looking for dividends because I want dividends. I have pipeline, utility and bank stocks for that. I am concerned though that share price appreciation will lag peers. This is my largest mid cap o and g investment. I need share price appreciation
I also noted there seems to be a lot less drilling in the eagle ford. 93 wells brought on stream in 21. Only 14 expected to be brought on stream in 22. We discussed the clearwater offset. I think this might be it?