RE:RE:QUESTION TO BSWBayStreetWolfTO wrote: QI, the company was catching up in May/Jun/Jul on buybacks. I expect buybacks will slow through Q3/Q4
Their plan is 75% Debt / 25% Share Buybacks
@ $100 avg WTI (currently we are YTD avg 101.81) we are around $825 million in free cash flow
Therefore split $618.75 debt and $206.25 Buybacks
December 31,2021 Ending Net Debt was $1.410M
Not factoring in increased production I take $1.410-618.75 which gets me $791M at Y/E based on $100 average oil for the year..
In order to average $100 oil for 2022 we need the last 113 settlements to average $97.70
It will be close regardless. Hope that helps
Quietinvestor wrote: After a detailed review of the MD&A, my sense is that they will not hit 800M$ this year if they continue to buy back shares in the next two quarters while paying off debt? Not an issue for me, but what is your sense.
Tx
another way to look at this is they are at 1.14B. They need to pay off 314m to get to the 800m figure. If 75% of fcf goes to debt, they need 418 fcf to get there.
They just did 246 fcf in q3. I think 418 fcf in the back half is a certainty at oil hovering where it is.