Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

QUESTION TO BSW

[Quietinvestor]

After a detailed review of the MD&A, my sense is that they will not hit 800M$ this year if they continue to buy back shares in the next two quarters while paying off debt? Not an issue for me, but what is your sense.

Tx 

[BayStreetWolfTO]

QI, the company was catching up in May/Jun/Jul on buybacks. I expect buybacks will slow through Q3/Q4 Their plan is 75% Debt / 25% Share Buybacks @ $100 avg WTI (currently we are YTD avg 101.81) we are around $825 million in free cash flow Therefore split $618.75 debt and $206.25 Buybacks December 31,2021 Ending Net Debt was $1.410M Not factoring in increased production I take $1.410-618.75

[JohnnyDoe]

another way to look at this is they are at 1.14B. They need to pay off 314m to get to the 800m figure. If 75% of fcf goes to debt, they need 418 fcf to get there. They just did 246 fcf in q3. I think 418 fcf in the back half is a certainty at oil hovering where it is.

[dllscwbysfn]

 I am not so sure of your numbers. They did 246 in fcf but they only paid off 152 m in debt. So I think capex had to come off. I still think that 800 will be quite close by the end of the year if we can pay off the same 152M each quarter would have us at 819 in debt. Should be more production but likely more cap ex as well. And of course most importantly that wti stays above 95!!

[BayStreetWolfTO]

Good point JD, For those who like numbers and watch the financials/metrics and data...Q1/Q3 capex are the highest Q2/Q4 the lowest...Q4 being the lowest of the year. Think about FCF and the following capex split My estimates for Q2,Q3 and Q4 Q2: ~ $105M (FCF was $245M) Q3: ~ $178M  Q4: ~ $65M BUT of course the $178M will bring in MORE FCF due to production increase for Q3/Q4!

[Quietinvestor]

Many thanks.