Worth the look...Eric Nuttall tweets of the day ! Watch the FCF yield in 2024 between 70$WTI and 100$ !
A FREE CASHFLOW MACHINE !
#1 :
Let's assume we are wrong. What do valuations and free cashflow look like at near-current prices? At $70WTI the average energy stock we model trades at 3.7x EV/CF and a 12% free cashflow yield, all with perhaps the strongest balance sheets in history.
What if the multi-year bull market for oil isn't over, but just delayed until macro panic subsides? Our favourite companies we believe are now trading at 30% free cashflow yields with over 30 years of stay-flat inventory and have pledged 75%+ of FCF to shareholder returns.
Do we remain bullish? Absolutely. Why? Even in a recession we believe demand grows, yet short-cycle US shale growth is radically falling and long-cycle investment remains too low. All while OPEC spare capacity is set to be exhausted. Falling inventories = higher price, eventually