RE:Bought in the mid $4's sold in the low $5'sInteresting information Snow. I don't jump in and out, so I can't really comment or relate to your signals. But I will tweak your falling in love comment. I would agree that it's dangerous to get married to a stock. From my perspective, it's important to know what changes would cause me to sell. It's also important to be able to argue the bear thesis for what I own. All of this is in the context of value and medium to long term (months to years). I personally believe anything shorter than that is impossible to predict, but I did try for a number of years as a short term trader. I made some money, but after taxes and fees, the profits were just too small to make the effort worthwhile.
Currently, the bear thesis is very weak for oil and BTE. The bull thesis is as strong as it's ever been now three years into this multi year energy bull market. So my strategy is to go big and sit tight. I've made much more money identifying great value, betting big, and waiting. Sometimes waiting means 6 monhts, sometimes 6 years. It's important to set targets but also identify when the fundamentals of the company of changed in a way that there is either too much risk or diminished value forcing an exit.
That doesn't mean I'm married to the stock. I suspect most long term holders are not married to it either. It's just that the value is so great that it makes the most sense to add and sit tight.
This has been a much more profitable strategy for me over the years, but this one has turned out to be the best of them all. I added another 200,000 shares as it leaked into the low 4's and even some in the 3's to put my share count close to 1.5 million. So jumping in and out for a few hundred dollars profit is not feasible unless I don't want to do anything else with my life. The capital gain tax at this point is going to be very large and I like having that capital gain tax money still working for me rather than paying it to the government. It's like having interest free margin. If I sold everything to wait for a technical signal to buy again, I would have a lot less money to buy back shares. Even it it was way cheaper at the new target, I would have far fewer shares.
I will sell it someday, but not when the value is so great.
The best deal in the CAD oil patch right now is right here.
Patience my friends!
Snowballer wrote: Incase some of my stockers out there think I claim to have bought the bottom (I did not) or sell the top (I did not) and why anyone would care if I'm even lying (which I am not) is curious to say the least. It's the interent lol get over yourselves.
A helpful tip to those who fall in love with a stock.. don't! Easier to take profit and easier to be patient buying back a position.
Tip of the week, free of charge: Anytime a stock gets reject at the 200DMA is a bearish signal. If it tries again and succeeds that is bullish. Many good traders will wait for it to cross the 200DMA, let it re-test it and then if confirmed, buy into the confirmed bull market of the stock.
Finding the bottom's or top's are fun, but it's easier to get the middle slice of the cake. GL longs, traders and shorts. I do not discriminate cause I have an open mind :)