My Views I suspect most here saw it already, but in his Market Commentary on November 22, Eric "The Red" Nuttall believed there was an $80 floor on the price of oil. He also stated that Q1 is typically the weakest Q for Oil producers. Well, here we are less than two weeks later and WTI is below $74, the planned OPEC+ cuts are "voluntary" (OPEC+ countries have broken promises of past cuts even when they were supposed to be firm), and the US (largest oil producer in the world) is producing more oil that at any point in its history.
One thing I will agree with Eric on is CNQ. I think this is by far the best run O&G E&P company in Canada (probably the world - I an unaware of any that are better) and, true to form, they are expected to hit their debt reduction target very soon. You might say, yeah, but they're a large cap name. Well, so are SU, CVE, and IMO but in my view, they can't touch CNQ in terms of asset qualiy, smart decision making, and best in class dividend history (both regular and special). This is particularly impressive given that, unlike mid-stream dividend payers (e.g., ENB, TCP, PPL), CNQ has to navigate the price volatility of oil and gas, decide on hedging strategies, etc. while keeping their yield-seeking shareholders happy. They've done an excellent job to date of doing just that.
On the other hand, BTE debt is still rated as junk status and is significantly further away from meeting their debt reduction target and/or achieving investment-grade credit status. Not sure what their current hedge book is like, but I wouldn't be counting on their unhedged production to average more than $80 until Q2 2024, so could see this name go significantly lower before it goes higher.