Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

FCF calculations for perspective

[BayStreetWolfTO]

For perspective (including hedges)

Not including increased production through 2021 or 2022...on top of better 2022 hedges!

Feel free to double check my math based on current prices including hedges

BTE presentation
>$250m 2021
Assumptions
WTI $60
WCS $48
NYMEX - $2.80
FX - $0.80

If you annualized current prices take original $250m and add
WTI $71 (add $143m)
WCS $56.5 (add $26m)
NYMEX - $3.30 (add $ 10m)
FX - $0.82 (add $10m)

Total annualized at these prices $439m

If you annualized say near $80 current prices take original $250m and add
WTI $80 (add $260m)
WCS $65 (add $54m)
NYMEX - $3.30 (add $ 10m)
FX - $0.83 (add $15m)

Total annualized at these prices $590m

If you annualized say near $100 current prices take original $250m and add
WTI $100 (add $520m)
WCS $85 (add $118m)
NYMEX - $3.30 (add $ 10m)
FX - $0.83 (add $15m)

Total annualized at these prices $910m

[1234bmth]

Based on Jun presentation, $250M FCF is on $55 WTI assumptions not $60. At $60 WTI the projected FCF is &300M.

[Bully88]

Does this mean  $65  350m $70  400m $75  450m $80  500m ?? Bully

[2021Gamble]

@bully88.....yes, that would be 'a conservative' way to do the math....

[Maxmoe]

Fcf might get "used up" on capex,buyback,debt repay,etc but a large proportion of expenses do not go up because wti and revenue goes up. Or the cost goes up less. Eg. If wti goes from 40 to 80, revenue will double. But expenses, like head office overhead does not double. Neither do the field costs of operating a well. Or transportation costs. Etc etc. FCF will grow, all else equal, more