Post by
forecast123 on Mar 06, 2022 1:22pm
sell/hold plan for my energy shares
To start with, I don't have any insider info, not a stock analyst, nor do I have crystal ball of the world ahead. I am an investor ie not a trader. I have been thinking about my energy shares holding as they are becoming a significant part of my portfolio.
I have about 24K shares of BTE with average cost of 3.9$. I have about 10K of CJ with average cost of 5.4$. Also have some WCP with average cost of 4.5$. All three are happily in the green.
My prediction:
- WTI will still be above 100 US$ at least till end of 2023.
- CJ will issue a monthly dividend of 0.06$ per month with first payout in mid May 2022.
- CJ SP will reach 9 $ by end May and 10$ by end Oct 2022.
- BTE, sure, will start share buyback a few months from now but I don't think BTE will issue any dividend in 2022 . Well, perhaps they will issue a small dividend payout starting Feb or Mar 2023 but not in 2022.
- BTE SP will reach 8.5$ by end Oct 2022 but I have no idea its SP beyond that.
- WCP SP will rise but frankly admit I can't predict WCP SP
With above prediction in mind, I plan to keep all 10K of my CJ shares (happy with a monthly dividend of 0.06$ per month) and monitor its SP till 13 $+ before I consider selling. For BTE, I plan to offload 15% by end Oct 2022 (my thought of SP of 8.5$) solely because I need the cash at that time. Thereafter, I plan to sell another 35% by mid 2023. The remaining 50% (around 12K shares) will be either hold or sell depending on the potential of BTE at that time after knowing its dividend and Clearwater performance. I plan to keep on holding my WCP for possibly a few years.
Comment by
1234bmth on Mar 06, 2022 1:36pm
Your SP prediction vs oil price prediction is way off. You think oil will stay $100+ until end of 2023 and BTE $8.50 by OCT 2022, if oil holds $100+ until OCT, BTE will be easily $10 to $12 or even higher, of course if oil drops then that's different situation.
Comment by
Drifter133 on Mar 06, 2022 1:39pm
forecast, management has stated that Div. will not happen until debt gets to 800M minimuim and that's a maybe but good odds. Date wise for dividends is out of picture. I agree with you and that they should go balls to the wall with production and screw buybacks and dividends until debt is under 500M minimuim. As you said "take advantage of this crasy oil pricing!