Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

I'm starting to see a setup happening ........

[topdown99]

Now when I say a setup , I don't mean that in a bad way , maybe I should call it a lay-up rather than a setup . We have all discussed ad nauseam the supply/demand dynamic and we all agree that this precarious situation can fall apart with any further loss of supply or increase in demand , so this is how I see this jigsaw puzzle coming together .

With all the "distractions" the talking heads keep clouding the discusion with like variants , covid lockdowns in China , India backdooring Russian oil , Libyan production coming back , Iran sanction MIGHT be lifted , SPR release etc , etc , etc . All these things are made out to be the end of oil yet WTI continues to oscillate between $100 & $105 (no effect) . 

Yesterday there was a big arguement here regarding weekly guestimates vs actual historical volumes which confirmed that US production was dropping , not rising . Calfrac Q1 numbers missed estimates (posted a loss) in which should have been a banner Q1 , so if producers will really drilling as Mike McGloom would have you believe why is Calfrac still losing money ?

Now on the demand side , covid cases are falling rapidly in Shanghai , Beijing isn't finding many covid cases (52 cases yesterday) in a city of millions . AirB&B announced today its forward guidance which showed a huge jump in summer reservations . Look at how busy airports are already and 9 of 10 "experts" expect pent up demand for travel to continue surging throughout the summer . All I hear is everyone has waited long enough and they all want a normal summer holiday . Are you seeing the pattern ?

I expect the poor engineer of the supply train is about to realise that light isn't the end of the tunnel , its the demand train that blew past the siding and is now racing through that same tunnel on the same track . Consider an unexpected (or expected by some) massive EIA crude draw down tomorrow , the SPR is at decades low levels and say the EU actually agree's to cut Russian crude imports . Now combine that with J Powell only raising 0.5% tomorrow but hesitating on "hawkish" talk due to a slowing US economy , those combined events would possibly be the tipping point where WTI starts to jump higher . 

Canadian O&G stocks are the cheapest , best value of any asset class bar none yet many shorts still remain in place against those very stocks . When this tug of war finally snaps , it will be like a tow truck cable breaking under tension , some people will lose their heads . 

Now maybe this all comes together tomorrow as described or maybe it doesn't but I am seeing the domino's in place and all lined up , once the first one goes over you will not be able to stop the chain reaction . It's a pleasant thought which I will be sleeping on tonight , see you all in the AM for the EIA numbers .

[nikolaos]

TD totally agree with your sentiments. I think the market as a whole is very slow at figuring out whats going on. By the time we see massive increases to wti, all regular folk are going to wonder how it crept up on them so fast, when in reality this has been in my opinion building since prior to covid. Covid was the blip on the radar that accelerated destruction of supply but I honestly feel that

[topdown99]

Here's a little more "food for thought" nikolaos , for all the political "jawboning" regarding trying to talk down oil prices , neither the Democrats , Libtards or NDP want lower energy prices ........ why you ask ? For starters , politicians don't buy their own gas , you pay for it with your tax dollars . Plane tickets (business class) , you pay for that too so high

[Chrisinvan7]

Imagine what would happen to the WTI price if those same drone attacks took place tomorrow with opec supply exhausted?