Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Forecast 2023

[Easterbunny2]

A lot of good info. on the board.

Enquiring if BSW or others, have modeled mid '23 or EOY '23 SP? Assuming oil 85 avg over '23, ignore currency changes, use of FCF buybacks and distributions as announced?

[Maxmoe]

Welcome newbie. Love your chocolate turds. Have you heard of dyodd? It stands for do your own due diligence. You didn't ask, but here's my 3 cents worth. Every analyst on Bay Street has a forecast for 2023. Most will be wrong. Granted BSW does a more thorough job than some of those analysts and certainly more thorough than anyone else on this board. He can still be thorough and wrong. As

[IainCaimbeul]

Jeez Moe I think you made the Easter Bunny shyte it's fur, might have overloaded it's basket. NO Easter eggs for you, just O&G rising share prices and perhaps with a side order of dividends.

[Maxmoe]

LOL. I'd bet all my eggs, newbie is a new alias only.

[Easterbunny2]

Not an alias, have been reading board for long time, and have been holding and light trading/ accumulating BTE for very long time. Had to pick a name, EasterBunny2 was available.  I should have prefaced my question. I'm fully informed on BTE financials, data, history, O&G macro trends etc.  right down to smaller than usual mountaintop snow pack which will affect hydroelectric

[ratsnake220]

As dollar drops oil goes up OIG up 40%.....gotta like that,,,,,max is over hear making money as he gets slaughtered with Corus....50% is okay i guess

[Maxmoe]

Now you're stalking me? I told you no, with your 5 digit account, and ratbassturd attitude nobody will take you as a client for the financial advice you desperately need. Certainly not me. NO! Means NO! Stick to an etf or low fee mutual fund. Have you EVER bought ANYTHING that made actual real money? Still trying the short and bash BS? The awesome plan of bashing bashing bashing with no short?

[BayStreetWolfTO]

EB, my take is if any bull or bear tries to forecast a price ignore them. The only model I look at is with $85 WTI I see us getting to $400m debt next year...ending the year with a possible go forward $1/share per year dividend. If I use a 5% yield I have in my head that value. What the market provides could be different which is why buybacks should never stop. That said if oil averages over $85..

[red2000]

I am glad Baytex done this deal so far with this hedge at 96$, already 9% higher compare to actual WTI price !!! Hope to see more update (boe/d, drilling results, some words about proven and proable reserves) with the next monthly presentation coming normally the 1st of the month just before Q3 results !!!

[red2000]

Momentum changing is coming... Gl Longs ! Please do your DD it's your money !

[Easterbunny2]

Thanks BSW, My curiosity is around a value that buybacks/cancelled shares offer.  Appreciating there's a positive correlation and assuming everything else constant-does a 10% reduction in o/s shares equate to a 1%, 10% or 20% increase in share price. Clearly never would work out so academically, but is there a formula or model which serves as a starting point?  I just don't see

[Maxmoe]

I don't recall seeing a sensitivity analysis for different levels of buybacks broadly speaking, or for any producer. Not just bte. Typically companies don't limit out on their NCIB allowance so the variation in the share count is immaterial. Especially if you add back in dilution from option exercises and warrants if applicable.  But if you're looking for an algebraic, all else

[Easterbunny2]

Thanks Max, that's helpful. I get that variables are....well variable, maybe I'm thinking about this wrong.  If you double share count the value at that point in time drops by half, all other factors constant.     So maybe I should just be looking for a baseline share count reduction as the inverse and scenario from there.  (And don't cr-p on me for using

[Maxmoe]

Forest vs trees bunny boy. You know, where your friend bear goes to void his bowels. Divy or buyback discussion won't matter a pinch of coonshit if wti goes wild. No matter what proportion of gigantic cashflow goes to which silo, don't forget the point is there is a gigantic pile of cash flow. Don't get lost following the butterfly of bickering over what % goes where. I'm just

[JohnnyDoe]

I think you are looking for a concrete answer where one doesn't exist. There's no formula and little consistency from one exec team to the next. What you can do is look at the company's messaging. 75% of fcf to debt until they reach 800m, which is expected early in the new year. Then it is 50/50 debt buybacks until the debt gets to 400, at which point they may not drive it lower (we

[dllscwbysfn]

Good answers guys. Just for kicks, what if you buyback 10% of initial shares for 9years and 11 months what would the last few shares then be worth?

[Hightowntrader]

Do you want Eric Nuttal's answer?   Or Harold Hamm's? One is a great theory that sounds exciting (while pontificating) during interviews... and one was proven a month ago.

[dllscwbysfn]

I'm just having fun.I know Nuttal's stance and I agree with it. I do not know Hamm's I know the plan is to pick up the speed of the buybacks next year assuming FCF stays in a good range. So if it was 10% bought back this year then future years would be closer to 20% assuming that the stock price never increased.  So in this plan it would be way less than 10 years to get to ZERO &

[dllscwbysfn]

So what was Hamm's

[Hightowntrader]

Coles notes: He was a majority owner in Continental He made an offer to buy it and take it private Originally rejected, he offered 10-15% above current price Now its a private company. So I guess the last remaining public share wasn't worth 27 Billion... Only 10-15% more than market

[dllscwbysfn]

Well i don't care for that too much. I hope BTE is in a better position to fight off a hostile takeover or anything similar to Continental.  It is interesting though. If the SP doesnt really go up and BTE keeps adding value in share buybacks and debt reduction do we become a takeover target? And would this be good? A year from now we may have debt at 400 and shares dropped by another 15

[Konaboy]

All good in theory, but right now all of the analysts eyes are getting stuck on the Debt line of the balance sheet. At some point it will actually become relevant, but for the moment it's not.