Post by
Unlucky13 on Dec 10, 2022 6:08am
Where is the Wolf of Baystreet?
Remember that guy who was predicting cash flows at $120 oil? He was holding to June 2023. He said the noise didn't matter. Well, apparently it does. He sounded like an Eric Nuttal disciple.
I was down 500k at one point in BTE and then saw it come back and left with a 250k profit. It could have been life changing. I then went ahead and day traded in other stocks, mostly nat gas futures and lost the 250k. I borrowed at one point 250k from my Father to keep my BTE shares as I was on margin. I paid him back and ultimately have about 30k left to my name but my house paid off. My Father is in his 80s and it felt good paying him back as it was very embarrassing borrowing money for multiple margin calls.
What did I learn? Don't get too in love with any one stock. BTE is the classic example. We all thought it was going to $10 and here it is back under $6 in the flaming $5 range once again. Debt is still over a billion and while the stock will survive its no longer guaranteed to keep going up. With Canadian oil down it could be a longer time horizon before reentry into the space. It's a coin flip now and not a guarantee. Back to Wolf, he was openly suppressing other voices and was beating the drum how this was a 100 percent upside play. His guarantee play now might end up half of what he was predicting. Wolf insinuated he bet the house. What was alarming about him was he was all about cash flows and said the share price didn't matter as long as the business was solid. Here we are 6 months later with oil down $50 and his analysis appears weak at best. All his cash flow projections were over inflated and didn't take into account a sinking commodity price. At current prices BTE is barely paying down debt and the buyback hasn't boosted the share price much.
Can we all agree not to take one guy and make him a saint whether it's Eric Nuttal or anyone else? $14 price projection by Nuttal is looking way out in left field now.
This could easily be in trouble again if oil doesn't turn and we do have a $60 price cap in Russia. The SPR has worked bringing the commodity price down.
Please mention Wolf in follow up posts and about how he was just another charlatan that didn't really foresee this downturn. You think try safer play is to wait and see what happens before jumping in. It's not unheard of for this stock to go back into the $4 range if oil doesn't turn around soon.
Remember Jesse Grimes, there wa another guy who said $20 a share and disappeared.
Comment by
unluckyl3 on Dec 10, 2022 5:52pm
I wrote my post while driving my uber sans passenger.
Comment by
Diligent2 on Dec 10, 2022 6:50pm
Michael Chan at RBC : Paper money selling into low volume. Invnetories are going down and they will accelerate by may. We a few months , hedge funds are out longs at lowest since pre 2000. Patience pays, I have been buying on the way down. Count your blessings that we have so many energy blind and living on hope for low gas prices.