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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Alternate Symbol(s):  BTE

Baytex Energy Corp. is a Canada-based energy company. The Company is engaged in the acquisition, development and production of crude oil and natural gas in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and in the Eagle Ford in the United States. Its crude oil and natural gas operations are organized into three main operating areas: Light Oil USA (Eagle Ford), Light Oil Canada (Pembina Duvernay... see more

TSX:BTE - Post Discussion

Baytex Energy Corp > Alright Snowball
View:
Post by TheWokeLemming on Dec 30, 2022 3:49pm

Alright Snowball

WTI about to test $81 again.  What does your crystal ball tell you?
Comment by Cobalt on Dec 30, 2022 4:00pm
Needs to get over $82 with conviction or it s just another lower high in a down trend
Comment by Cobalt on Jan 03, 2023 10:44am
Yup just another lower high in a down trend, 2.5 million barrels of extra equivalent supply in 22 and 1 more million in 23 coming, The shortage story is dead shh dont tell anyone ;)
Comment by Snowballer on Jan 03, 2023 11:01am
I still have a target of $87/$88 WTI and a $6.30 - $6.50 range target on BTE. Hiting these targets still keeps us in a downtrend.
Comment by Tradestay on Jan 03, 2023 11:18am
Can you give some colour on your share price range 6.30 to 6.50, because at $87/$88 WTI BTE free cash flow will be over $600M just over or shy of $700 million based on their presentation. That puts debts to below $700 and increase share buybacks begins. 
Comment by Snowballer on Jan 03, 2023 11:42am
Simply following technical targets which may or may not play out, of course. But I suspect we see that push up over the next few weeks. We could be putting in a higher low here from the recent bottom on BTE and WTI so we could easily go lower here before trending back up. Macro is still a bearish downtrend as BTE and WTI still below 200DMA.
Comment by David01montreal on Jan 03, 2023 11:42am
This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy
Comment by 1234bmth on Jan 03, 2023 12:15pm
Based on Dec presentation BTE FCF for 2023 at: $80 WTI is $565M so $423M in debt reduction and $141M in share buyback, at $75 WTI FCF would be $435M, then $326M in debt reduction and $108M in share buyback. In both case debt would around $600M or lower depending to oil price average for the year, that means BTE will be in a very strong position by the end of 2023 if WTI averages $75 +    ...more  
Comment by dllscwbysfn on Jan 03, 2023 12:27pm
Where does capex fit into your math??
Comment by 1234bmth on Jan 03, 2023 12:37pm
Just look at BTE Dec presentation slide 11 and 14 and you will get what I wrote.  
Comment by dllscwbysfn on Jan 03, 2023 1:33pm
Sorry, I misread your post I thought you had said $70WTI
Comment by David01montreal on Jan 03, 2023 2:57pm
This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy
Comment by 1234bmth on Jan 03, 2023 3:08pm
personally I am not in favour of buyback and spending more on drilling in case of BTE, because the debt still is too high, I prefer aggressively reducing debt up to a reasonable level and start paying dividend, but this is management decision.  
Comment by David01montreal on Jan 03, 2023 3:21pm
This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy
Comment by David01montreal on Jan 03, 2023 11:03am
This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy
Comment by Snowballer on Jan 03, 2023 11:07am
I would prefer if they kept production flat with small growth, continue balanced program of share buyback and debt pmt program.
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