Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Harbinger?

[Kelvin]

I've been reading stuff today saying that rising yields on US Treasury bonds and bills are starting to become a real worry. Bond yelds are inverse to bond prices. The higher the yield, then the lower the market value of the bond.

The fear that analysts have is that if treasury yields continue to rise, then the value of treasuries will ontinue to decline. We might reach a point where those who own those trillions of dollars in treasuries will want to offload them to limit the damage being done to their balance sheets.

So the worry is a stampede out of treasuries which will trigger soaring interest rates that will then trigger a massive sell-off in the equities markets.

Overblown, exagerated fears? Shorters cooking up some black swan, macro event in order to make a pile of cash? Plausible? Any opinions on this?

[Cobalt]

20 year cycles on bonds just went through 40 years of dropping rates today i heard 13% on the ten year in due time by the most watched bond guy. Fun Fun some safe divy stocks got smashed today like never before 3.5% ha who wants that right? Not all as it seems I'm in the camp Big teck AI does well Billions on the ballance sheet now makes money for them and no need to go to the capital markes

[Cobalt]

"Plausible?" More so then not, buyers have dried up China nope selling, Japan nope Selling, Fed nope selling, Debt is out of control trillions of paper coming and few buyers they will demand a higher yield, love it new paradigm, all good Coby's Cobalt billionaires are on it ;)

[Kelvin]

Lol, "Coby's Cobalt billionaires". You gonna ride some horse I guess to ride out the storm. Should change your name to Cody. Ride em cowboy! 

[Retiredgeo]

For such a macro view start watching the Crescat podcasts.  They spend the first half hour of every weekly episode on Friday afternoon talking macro economics and how it will affect commodities.  They are big gold and silver bugs but they also talk oil and other commodities.

[Kelvin]

Thanks retiredgeo. I'll start watching Crescat. I'm starting to read more commentary saying that inflation cannot be solved with monetary policy because the root cause of inflation is a growing scarcity of food and natural resources. So you cannot keep prices stable by reducing demand with higher interest rates when supply is declining at a faster rate than demand is. In fact, lots of

[Retiredgeo]

Everything is weakening against the almighty US dollar, including oil yesterday.  Once again the US is pricing itself out of the global marketplace.  This will show up in the stats eventually. The Crescat boys have made the comment many times over that the cure for inflation is to flood the market with commodities.  That isn't happening at the moment, especially, in the mining

[Kelvin]

Yeah they say that it already is showing up in the stats with the US PMI showing contraction in US manufacturing. One analyst said that when it shows up in the US jobs numbers then all bets are off. Yes, I do remember those days of high inflation. Then Paul Volker, Fed chair really started hiking in the early 80s. Debtors got crushed. The only things that kept things from crashing was that back

[Cobalt]

"They are big gold and silver bugs" Gold last time i looked is 89% correlated to the to year real rate, with rates moving up and inflation down, terrible for gold. Just dropped 6% with the 10 year spiking. Gold topped out May 3 weeks after the ten year real bottomed at 1%.

[Cobalt]

Oof open jobs just came in hot 9.61 million open job vs 8.8m estimate, 10 year spikes again

[Kelvin]

Cobalt, Yes I see that 2 & 10 year yields still moving up sharply this morning and the USDX breaking through 107. What are a lot of investors doing? Selling off treasuries and buying US dollars? If yes, then it's a bet that the dollar will appreciate more than inflation will increase because nobody goes into cash at zero percent interest unless they think that their buying power will

[Cobalt]

"What are a lot of investors doing" So far Bill Ackman has the right call short the long bond but we just touching a new paradigm with a call for 13% ten year yesterday they dumped the so called safe divy plays in the utilitie and consumer sector they cant compeat with the rates. Anybody that needs finacing could be in trouble this could be great for Oil names that are sitting on 40