Post by
Sugaree on Oct 02, 2023 10:04pm
$1.5 billion debt target
I can't find it anywhere in the presentation, maybe I just missed it. Anyone know when Baytex expects to reach the $1.5 billion debt goal? This will trigger 75% of FCF to buybacks/dividends.
Anyone know an approximate timeline?
Thanks in advance.
Comment by
raven16 on Oct 02, 2023 10:18pm
Sugaree, I Think If You Look At The September 27 Presentation In Denver, Eric Talks bout It,Let Me Know If You Can't Find The Presentation.
Comment by
Sugaree on Oct 02, 2023 10:35pm
Can't find a Sept 27 presentation, I was looking at the new October PDF presentation. Please post link if you can, thanks.
Comment by
1234bmth on Oct 02, 2023 11:14pm
They can't give an exact time for debt target at 1.5B because the oil price is very volatile, if we look at cumulative FCF from H2 2023 to end of 2026, they will reach this debt target as follows: at average $70 WTI end of Q2 2026, $80 average WTI around end of Q2 2025 and $90 average WTI end of Q4 2024. This is just an average calculation that I did, it could differ a bit more or less.
Comment by
clamlinguine on Oct 03, 2023 11:34am
Prorating from the presentation, I get....2.5 billion debt today, 750 million per year to debt at $90 oil= 1.33 years to 1.5 billion of debt. Mid february 2025.
Comment by
AvInvestor on Oct 03, 2023 8:11pm
$2.58 billion was as of June 30th (Q2 end). The real debt number is most probably lower with such strong WTI summer pricing. Your calculation for $1.5 billion debt target is mist likely NOV or DEC 2024. My guess is the current debt position to in the range of $2.1- 2.3 Billion as of now.
Comment by
1234bmth on Oct 03, 2023 8:36pm
If my average WTI prediction for Q3 is near what BTE will realize for Q3, then I expect $ $300M to $320M FCF. Let's assume $300M so 1/2 goes to debt then debt should be a bit more than $2.4B. $2.1B is unrealistic.
Comment by
AvInvestor on Oct 03, 2023 8:51pm
I gave it a range of 2.3-2.1, but ok fair enough.
Comment by
AvInvestor on Oct 03, 2023 9:07pm
On that note, the dividend only commenced in Q3. Does the 1/2 FcF return to shareholders apple during Q2? Did the company actually use half of FcF to buyback shares instead of dividends/ buybacks, or does the 50% capital return only commenced in Q3? If not, you're calcutaion may be off and therefore the debt position could be closer to $2.3B... we shall find out next month?